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JeffX
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Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-22-2018 19:09
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This is almost a week old but I just came across it.

It's interesting that Panasonic is partnering up with Toyota, Nissan, and Honda for the next generation solid state batteries, and seemingly leaving their current primary partner behind. As I've said before, current Li-Ion tech is a dead end - dangerous, unstable, poor charging characteristics, and far too costly. It's also interesting that they're aiming for costs of about $90/kWh at the pack level by 2030. This still makes long range BEVs very, VERY expensive, and that's 12 years out.

The Japanese project ultimately aims to lower the battery pack cost to the 10,000-yen level ($90) per kilowatt-hour by around 2030, or about one-third the cost for existing lithium-ion batteries. The research also targets a fast-charge time of 10 minutes, also around one-third of that needed for lithium-ion batteries.


This paragraph was interesting to me as well:
Current electric vehicles use lithium-ion batteries based on liquid electrolyte. Panasonic was the longtime global leader of these batteries, but its market share is expected to fall to just 16% this year, down from 44% in 2014, according to Tokyo-based consultancy Techno Systems Research. The crown now belongs to China's Contemporary Amperex Technology, otherwise known as CATL, which has recruited top-notch engineers from abroad thanks to government aid.


It seems to contradict a lot of claims about "first mover advantage" that I've heard in the past.

Here's the link:
Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars



Last edited by JeffX on 06-22-2018 19:11
HondaForever
Profile for HondaForever
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-22-2018 20:57
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JeffX wrote:
This is almost a week old but I just came across it.

It's interesting that Panasonic is partnering up with Toyota, Nissan, and Honda for the next generation solid state batteries, and seemingly leaving their current primary partner behind. As I've said before, current Li-Ion tech is a dead end - dangerous, unstable, poor charging characteristics, and far too costly. It's also interesting that they're aiming for costs of about $90/kWh at the pack level by 2030. This still makes long range BEVs very, VERY expensive, and that's 12 years out.

The Japanese project ultimately aims to lower the battery pack cost to the 10,000-yen level ($90) per kilowatt-hour by around 2030, or about one-third the cost for existing lithium-ion batteries. The research also targets a fast-charge time of 10 minutes, also around one-third of that needed for lithium-ion batteries.


This paragraph was interesting to me as well:
Current electric vehicles use lithium-ion batteries based on liquid electrolyte. Panasonic was the longtime global leader of these batteries, but its market share is expected to fall to just 16% this year, down from 44% in 2014, according to Tokyo-based consultancy Techno Systems Research. The crown now belongs to China's Contemporary Amperex Technology, otherwise known as CATL, which has recruited top-notch engineers from abroad thanks to government aid.


It seems to contradict a lot of claims about "first mover advantage" that I've heard in the past.

Here's the link:
Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars


Jeff, clearly you've been studying this topic a lot and are up to speed on it. As such, I believe you've left some explanations out of your post that leaves me confused:

1. You say that "The Japanese project ultimately aims to lower the battery pack cost to the 10,000-yen level ($90) per kilowatt-hour by around 2030, or about one-third the cost for existing lithium-ion batteries."

A reduction to about one-third the current price of anything would seem to be a significant cost reduction under normal circumstances, especially if you take inflation into account. Yet you say "This still makes long range BEVs very, VERY expensive, and that's 12 years out."

Perhaps you can explain a bit further, please? What are you comparing the cost to?

Midi_Amp
Profile for Midi_Amp
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-22-2018 21:15
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When a state sponsors anything, good things will happen. It's not always about the money, the regulation and law will also be accommodated to that end. We know one country that went to the moon because of it.

Is it a bad business practice, probably, but look where China is now because of their state sponsored businesses. I'm not going to name names, but from components to end products, China is everywhere and gaining foothold fast. I wish businesses wises up fast and not only looking in the short term. Case in point, Panasonic, they only wises up and collaborate because they got beat. Does foresight isn't a general business practice anymore?

HondaForever
Profile for HondaForever
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-22-2018 21:20
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Midi_Amp wrote:
When a state sponsors anything, good things will happen. It's not always about the money, the regulation and law will also be accommodated to that end. We know one country that went to the moon because of it.

Is it a bad business practice, probably, but look where China is now because of their state sponsored businesses. I'm not going to name names, but from components to end products, China is everywhere and gaining foothold fast. I wish businesses wises up fast and not only looking in the short term. Case in point, Panasonic, they only wises up and collaborate because they got beat. Does foresight isn't a general business practice anymore?


Uh oh! I take it you don't live in the US :-)

JeffX
Profile for JeffX
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-22-2018 22:27
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HondaForever wrote:
JeffX wrote:
This is almost a week old but I just came across it.

It's interesting that Panasonic is partnering up with Toyota, Nissan, and Honda for the next generation solid state batteries, and seemingly leaving their current primary partner behind. As I've said before, current Li-Ion tech is a dead end - dangerous, unstable, poor charging characteristics, and far too costly. It's also interesting that they're aiming for costs of about $90/kWh at the pack level by 2030. This still makes long range BEVs very, VERY expensive, and that's 12 years out.

The Japanese project ultimately aims to lower the battery pack cost to the 10,000-yen level ($90) per kilowatt-hour by around 2030, or about one-third the cost for existing lithium-ion batteries. The research also targets a fast-charge time of 10 minutes, also around one-third of that needed for lithium-ion batteries.


This paragraph was interesting to me as well:
Current electric vehicles use lithium-ion batteries based on liquid electrolyte. Panasonic was the longtime global leader of these batteries, but its market share is expected to fall to just 16% this year, down from 44% in 2014, according to Tokyo-based consultancy Techno Systems Research. The crown now belongs to China's Contemporary Amperex Technology, otherwise known as CATL, which has recruited top-notch engineers from abroad thanks to government aid.


It seems to contradict a lot of claims about "first mover advantage" that I've heard in the past.

Here's the link:
Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars


Jeff, clearly you've been studying this topic a lot and are up to speed on it. As such, I believe you've left some explanations out of your post that leaves me confused:

1. You say that "The Japanese project ultimately aims to lower the battery pack cost to the 10,000-yen level ($90) per kilowatt-hour by around 2030, or about one-third the cost for existing lithium-ion batteries."

A reduction to about one-third the current price of anything would seem to be a significant cost reduction under normal circumstances, especially if you take inflation into account. Yet you say "This still makes long range BEVs very, VERY expensive, and that's 12 years out."

Perhaps you can explain a bit further, please? What are you comparing the cost to?



first of all, a "long range" EV requires about 90-100kWh to achieve a ~300 mile driving range. Which really isn't "long range". So if you're at $90 per kWh, that's still $8-9k in pure cost for a car that still really doesn't compete with a typical petrol sedan with a 14-18 gallon fuel tank.

But my point is two-fold, as we've had some debates about this topic and how bloody expensive the battery packs are *today*. Particularly as some have criticized automakers (including Honda) for not making "affordable" long range BEVs. I've continually pointed out that it's not close to being economically feasible now, and it's not looking good for quite a while. So if these figures are accurate, the battery for a ~300 mile BEV today still costs in the 24-27k range. Or if you're looking at a Bolt, which has a 60kWh battery, then you're still talking about over $16k of battery cost for a tiny little vehicle that has a ~240 mile range.

This also goes directly counter to some of the claims we've heard from some folks, in particular a certain CEO who has a poor record with telling the truth.

atomiclightbulb
Profile for atomiclightbulb
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-23-2018 12:31
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JeffX wrote:
This is almost a week old but I just came across it.

It's interesting that Panasonic is partnering up with Toyota, Nissan, and Honda for the next generation solid state batteries, and seemingly leaving their current primary partner behind.


Jeff, that is a misleading characterization of what the article actually says:

"Japan has recruited automakers Toyota Motor, Nissan Motor and Honda Motor into the country's rush to establish the core technologies for solid-state lithium-ion batteries, a potentially safer and more powerful alternative to the type currently used in electric vehicles.

Battery maker Panasonic also is among the 23 companies in the public-private project begun Friday by Japan's New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, or NEDO."


NEDO is basically a Japanese government organization chartered under Japanese law and funded by Japan's trade ministry. The Japanese government recruiting Japanese companies to work on a government-sponsored project is NOT the same as Panasonic "leaving behind" Tesla.

The entire point of this project is to defend Japanese industry against a tidal wave of Chinese state-sponsored battery R&D and production. It has nothing to do with Tesla.



JeffX wrote:
first of all, a "long range" EV requires about 90-100kWh to achieve a ~300 mile driving range. Which really isn't "long range". So if you're at $90 per kWh, that's still $8-9k in pure cost for a car that still really doesn't compete with a typical petrol sedan with a 14-18 gallon fuel tank.


Battery cost is only one side of the equation.

A BEV's electric motor is much less complex (and therefore less expensive at equivalent economic scale) than a gasoline motor. A BEV doesn't require any transmission, emissions control system, or exhaust pipes. Cost savings from components that aren't needed have to be subtracted from the cost of the battery.



But my point is two-fold, as we've had some debates about this topic and how bloody expensive the battery packs are *today*. Particularly as some have criticized automakers (including Honda) for not making "affordable" long range BEVs. I've continually pointed out that it's not close to being economically feasible now, and it's not looking good for quite a while. So if these figures are accurate, the battery for a ~300 mile BEV today still costs in the 24-27k range. Or if you're looking at a Bolt, which has a 60kWh battery, then you're still talking about over $16k of battery cost for a tiny little vehicle that has a ~240 mile range.

This also goes directly counter to some of the claims we've heard from some folks, in particular a certain CEO who has a poor record with telling the truth.


My criticism of Honda is not related to "affordable" BEVs. I don't expect Honda to be delivering 300-mile range BEVs at Accord and CR-V prices in 2018. My problem with Honda has been that their BEV plans at the moment appear limited to small urban cars, and that they will be at a disadvantage in the North American, Chinese, and European markets if they don't have more diverse BEV platforms and cultivation of battery supply to stay competitive. Not laying the groundwork now, will have serious consequences in the future. The NEDO initiative seems to me to be the Japanese government shoving things forward because Japanese companies in total aren't moving quickly enough in the face of foreign (mostly Chinese and Korean) competition.

While Acura flounders, Jaguar is bringing the I-Pace to market. Audi and Mercedes are not far behind with their BEVs.

JeffX
Profile for JeffX
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-23-2018 13:16
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atomiclightbulb wrote:
JeffX wrote:
This is almost a week old but I just came across it.

It's interesting that Panasonic is partnering up with Toyota, Nissan, and Honda for the next generation solid state batteries, and seemingly leaving their current primary partner behind.


Jeff, that is a misleading characterization of what the article actually says:

"Japan has recruited automakers Toyota Motor, Nissan Motor and Honda Motor into the country's rush to establish the core technologies for solid-state lithium-ion batteries, a potentially safer and more powerful alternative to the type currently used in electric vehicles.

Battery maker Panasonic also is among the 23 companies in the public-private project begun Friday by Japan's New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, or NEDO."


NEDO is basically a Japanese government organization chartered under Japanese law and funded by Japan's trade ministry. The Japanese government recruiting Japanese companies to work on a government-sponsored project is NOT the same as Panasonic "leaving behind" Tesla.

The entire point of this project is to defend Japanese industry against a tidal wave of Chinese state-sponsored battery R&D and production. It has nothing to do with Tesla.



JeffX wrote:
first of all, a "long range" EV requires about 90-100kWh to achieve a ~300 mile driving range. Which really isn't "long range". So if you're at $90 per kWh, that's still $8-9k in pure cost for a car that still really doesn't compete with a typical petrol sedan with a 14-18 gallon fuel tank.


Battery cost is only one side of the equation.

A BEV's electric motor is much less complex (and therefore less expensive at equivalent economic scale) than a gasoline motor. A BEV doesn't require any transmission, emissions control system, or exhaust pipes. Cost savings from components that aren't needed have to be subtracted from the cost of the battery.


Really? go check the price of a drive unit for Tesla. For something that's supposed to be so simple, and "low maintenance", why are so many of them failing? They're over $10k apiece and they seem to be more much of a consumable than we've been lead to believe. And I don't really care how much savings there are in the electric motors and simple geartrains when the true consumables (batteries) *cost* over $20k per car. It's simple economics, and this point has continued to escape you. Remember, Tesla is very very DEEP in the red and it gets worse with every additional unit that is sold.


But my point is two-fold, as we've had some debates about this topic and how bloody expensive the battery packs are *today*. Particularly as some have criticized automakers (including Honda) for not making "affordable" long range BEVs. I've continually pointed out that it's not close to being economically feasible now, and it's not looking good for quite a while. So if these figures are accurate, the battery for a ~300 mile BEV today still costs in the 24-27k range. Or if you're looking at a Bolt, which has a 60kWh battery, then you're still talking about over $16k of battery cost for a tiny little vehicle that has a ~240 mile range.

This also goes directly counter to some of the claims we've heard from some folks, in particular a certain CEO who has a poor record with telling the truth.


My criticism of Honda is not related to "affordable" BEVs. I don't expect Honda to be delivering 300-mile range BEVs at Accord and CR-V prices in 2018. My problem with Honda has been that their BEV plans at the moment appear limited to small urban cars, and that they will be at a disadvantage in the North American, Chinese, and European markets if they don't have more diverse BEV platforms and cultivation of battery supply to stay competitive. Not laying the groundwork now, will have serious consequences in the future. The NEDO initiative seems to me to be the Japanese government shoving things forward because Japanese companies in total aren't moving quickly enough in the face of foreign (mostly Chinese and Korean) competition.

While Acura flounders, Jaguar is bringing the I-Pace to market. Audi and Mercedes are not far behind with their BEVs.



Exactly. As I've said, these EXPENSIVE BEVs are the only way that the "long range" BEVs make economic sense. People want them and will pay the premium for them as long as they deliver a premium experience. I've said that all along. Now, Elon has finally admitted that they can't build $35k model 3s without losing a shitload of money. I told you that over 2 years ago. The only way Honda or any fiscally responsible company can offer "long range" EVs today or in the next 5 years is if they get into that >$60k price range. And even then it's not a huge money maker due to market pressures. Tesla is so inefficient they're losing tons of money while selling a shitload of >$100k BEVs.

So Honda's not made any "real plans" for long rang BEVs because the idea is so bewilderingly stupid. The technology is immature, dangerous, incredibly expensive, and impractical. Honda is playing it smart and waiting for appropriate battery technology to materialize. Lithium Ion is a dead end.

The Germans are entering the space because A) it fits their market and B) they have no choice with the massive dieselgate scam (I will take this opportunity to remind everyone that I always said "clean diesel" was a scam).

When all the dust settles, history will show that massive packs of lithium ion batteries were generally a bad idea and not actually the environmental benefit that's been projected. In fact, I suspect that it will be determined that they've actually had a net negative impact, but I guess we'll see.


qingcong
Profile for qingcong
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-23-2018 13:37
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JeffX wrote:

When all the dust settles, history will show that massive packs of lithium ion batteries were generally a bad idea and not actually the environmental benefit that's been projected. In fact, I suspect that it will be determined that they've actually had a net negative impact, but I guess we'll see.





Yeah, probably. I think the main argument for BEVs these days is that you need to at least start somewhere. Even if lithium ion batteries are a dead end, at least the groundwork for other things in the BEV world have been put in place. It's a technology that has the potential to become cleaner over time.

JeffX
Profile for JeffX
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-23-2018 14:22
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qingcong wrote:
JeffX wrote:

When all the dust settles, history will show that massive packs of lithium ion batteries were generally a bad idea and not actually the environmental benefit that's been projected. In fact, I suspect that it will be determined that they've actually had a net negative impact, but I guess we'll see.





Yeah, probably. I think the main argument for BEVs these days is that you need to at least start somewhere. Even if lithium ion batteries are a dead end, at least the groundwork for other things in the BEV world have been put in place. It's a technology that has the potential to become cleaner over time.



Yes, you have companies betting everything (as in 10s of billions of other people's money) on something that is a dead end. Then you have companies taking a more measured approach. These are the ones which will prevail.

HondaForever
Profile for HondaForever
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-23-2018 19:38
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Another approach to the "range anxiety" issue:

"Siemens, the German technology company, recently conducted a one-mile eHighway demonstration at the Long Beach and Los Angeles ports using trucks that drew power from overhead wires, much the way trains and streetcars are powered.

Overhead power eliminates the need for huge batteries and recharging time. When a truck must pass another vehicle, it disconnects from the wiring system, temporarily using a small battery before reconnecting to the wires."


Sounds odd and impractical, buy Siemens is no Tesla for sure..

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/21/business/electric-buses-garbage-trucks.html?hpw&rref=automobiles&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region®ion=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well


TonyEX
Profile for TonyEX
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-23-2018 23:40
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HondaForever wrote:
Another approach to the "range anxiety" issue:

"Siemens, the German technology company, recently conducted a one-mile eHighway demonstration at the Long Beach and Los Angeles ports using trucks that drew power from overhead wires, much the way trains and streetcars are powered.

Overhead power eliminates the need for huge batteries and recharging time. When a truck must pass another vehicle, it disconnects from the wiring system, temporarily using a small battery before reconnecting to the wires."


Sounds odd and impractical, buy Siemens is no Tesla for sure..

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/21/business/electric-buses-garbage-trucks.html?hpw&rref=automobiles&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region®ion=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well




(1) UGLY -there's no way anyone is gonna allow overhead wires in suburban cities where ALL wiring is underground.

(2) EXPENSIVE in the US. Can you imagine wiring suburbia? And even then, can you imagine how much power must go through those overhead wires? It may work fine for trains, but not for cars and busses.

(3) Truly a German idea. KONTROL! Not KAOS. Schtaker, zis is KAOS, not KONTROL, we don't do zat here!



KaizenDo
Profile for KaizenDo
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-24-2018 04:51
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HondaForever wrote:
Another approach to the "range anxiety" issue:

"Siemens, the German technology company, recently conducted a one-mile eHighway demonstration at the Long Beach and Los Angeles ports using trucks that drew power from overhead wires, much the way trains and streetcars are powered.

Overhead power eliminates the need for huge batteries and recharging time. When a truck must pass another vehicle, it disconnects from the wiring system, temporarily using a small battery before reconnecting to the wires."


Sounds odd and impractical, buy Siemens is no Tesla for sure..

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/21/business/electric-buses-garbage-trucks.html?hpw&rref=automobiles&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=well-region®ion=bottom-well&WT.nav=bottom-well




BEVs are a politicum in Germany. They are a state declared target by Merkel-government and due to that, there is no real thought of practicality.

The idea of overhead powerlines along the Autobahn has been published some months ago in German media and most people commented the idea to be rubbish. Firstly because we already have trains running under the same condition and secondly imagine if there is an heavy traffic accident on the Autobahn. You have one or multiple heavily injured driver and need an emergency chopper coming to the rescue. Where should the chopper land if the overhead wires make it impossible to land on the road?


I think the solid state batteries wil be an good addition to HEVs and household electronics. But for fully electric cars, hyrdogen is simply the better option. Recent calculations are showing cost of highpressucer H2 tanks at 12 USD per kWh. Notably cheaper then the expected solid state battery costs in 2030.

With regards to Tesla. This is the July issue of German Manager Magazine. No further comment LINK

Fan Koni
Profile for Fan Koni
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-24-2018 07:58
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So the other day the announcement was made that Honda would rely on GM as future supplier of batteries for NA at least. For China I think they have a CATL agreement.
Anyway GM is supposedly doing quite well in that field with costs currently at $150 kWh, with most companies average supply at just over $200.
GM will push ahead with new technology and announced under $100 is for early next decade.
I understand these are not solid state batteries but given the mentioned $90 in 2030 I wonder if these are of any value anymore, given the price of normal batteries would be there almost 10 years earlier?!

JeffX
Profile for JeffX
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-24-2018 09:45
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Interesting story in The Sunday Times today. I can't read the entire thing, because of the paywall.

Green car giant Tesla ‘no cleaner than petrol rivals’



atomiclightbulb
Profile for atomiclightbulb
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-24-2018 10:05
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JeffX wrote:
atomiclightbulb wrote:
JeffX wrote:
This is almost a week old but I just came across it.

It's interesting that Panasonic is partnering up with Toyota, Nissan, and Honda for the next generation solid state batteries, and seemingly leaving their current primary partner behind.


Jeff, that is a misleading characterization of what the article actually says:

"Japan has recruited automakers Toyota Motor, Nissan Motor and Honda Motor into the country's rush to establish the core technologies for solid-state lithium-ion batteries, a potentially safer and more powerful alternative to the type currently used in electric vehicles.

Battery maker Panasonic also is among the 23 companies in the public-private project begun Friday by Japan's New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, or NEDO."


NEDO is basically a Japanese government organization chartered under Japanese law and funded by Japan's trade ministry. The Japanese government recruiting Japanese companies to work on a government-sponsored project is NOT the same as Panasonic "leaving behind" Tesla.

The entire point of this project is to defend Japanese industry against a tidal wave of Chinese state-sponsored battery R&D and production. It has nothing to do with Tesla.



JeffX wrote:
first of all, a "long range" EV requires about 90-100kWh to achieve a ~300 mile driving range. Which really isn't "long range". So if you're at $90 per kWh, that's still $8-9k in pure cost for a car that still really doesn't compete with a typical petrol sedan with a 14-18 gallon fuel tank.


Battery cost is only one side of the equation.

A BEV's electric motor is much less complex (and therefore less expensive at equivalent economic scale) than a gasoline motor. A BEV doesn't require any transmission, emissions control system, or exhaust pipes. Cost savings from components that aren't needed have to be subtracted from the cost of the battery.


Really? go check the price of a drive unit for Tesla. For something that's supposed to be so simple, and "low maintenance", why are so many of them failing? They're over $10k apiece and they seem to be more much of a consumable than we've been lead to believe. And I don't really care how much savings there are in the electric motors and simple geartrains when the true consumables (batteries) *cost* over $20k per car. It's simple economics, and this point has continued to escape you. Remember, Tesla is very very DEEP in the red and it gets worse with every additional unit that is sold.


JeffX,

(1) You've provided no statistical evidence that Tesla powertrains are "failing" and "consumable". Tesla's Model S rates "above average" in the Consumer Reports reliability surveys.

(2) You failed to understand my post. Re-read the section I bolded and underlined from my original post. Electric Motors at the same economic scale as gasoline engines should be less expensive than complicated gasoline motors. AT THE SAME ECONOMIC SCALE.

Prior to Model 3, Tesla was making maybe 100k-200k induction motors per year for Model S and Model X combined in 2017. Of course replacement motors are going to be hugely expensive when made in this relatively low quantity. Honda has to make 300-350k ICEs just for North American CR-Vs. Worldwide, they probably build millions of units/year of something like the L family.

(3) Tesla batteries degrade slowly -- to the point that most drivers probably don't need to replace them for the lifetime of the car. Out past 250,000 km, or about 150k miles, the trend line is for the packs to maintain about 90% of new capacity. A Belgian group of Tesla owners has been tracking the data for years: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/t024bMoRiDPIDialGnuKPsg/edit#gid=154312675

An air-cooled LEAF battery degrades quickly. A liquid-cooled Tesla or GM Bolt battery does not.

Also, as economies of scale go up, prices go down.





Exactly. As I've said, these EXPENSIVE BEVs are the only way that the "long range" BEVs make economic sense. People want them and will pay the premium for them as long as they deliver a premium experience. I've said that all along. Now, Elon has finally admitted that they can't build $35k model 3s without losing a shitload of money. I told you that over 2 years ago. The only way Honda or any fiscally responsible company can offer "long range" EVs today or in the next 5 years is if they get into that >$60k price range. And even then it's not a huge money maker due to market pressures. Tesla is so inefficient they're losing tons of money while selling a shitload of >$100k BEVs.

So Honda's not made any "real plans" for long rang BEVs because the idea is so bewilderingly stupid. The technology is immature, dangerous, incredibly expensive, and impractical. Honda is playing it smart and waiting for appropriate battery technology to materialize. Lithium Ion is a dead end.

The Germans are entering the space because A) it fits their market and B) they have no choice with the massive dieselgate scam (I will take this opportunity to remind everyone that I always said "clean diesel" was a scam).

When all the dust settles, history will show that massive packs of lithium ion batteries were generally a bad idea and not actually the environmental benefit that's been projected. In fact, I suspect that it will be determined that they've actually had a net negative impact, but I guess we'll see.



(1) What Elon Musk actually said, is that at present economies of scale, the 35k Tesla Model 3 doesn't make sense. If Tesla gets production north 5k units/week, that may change.

Here's the actual quote from Tweet: "“With production, 1st you need achieve target rate & then smooth out flow to achieve target cost,” Musk tweeted May 20. “Shipping min cost Model 3 right away wd cause Tesla to lose money & die. Need 3 to 6 months after 5k/wk to ship $35k Tesla & live.”

Image of Tweet linked here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2018/05/21/tesla-35000-model-3-musk/#40b1fba7acb4



(2) Meanwhile, Honda has wasted much time and effort on the Clarity FCEV program, which is bewilderingly stupid. The technology is fundamentally energy inefficient relative to BEVs, incredibly expensive, and impractical from an infrastructure perspective.

What does a Clarity FCEV cost? About 60k.

atomiclightbulb
Profile for atomiclightbulb
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-24-2018 10:13
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JeffX wrote:
When all the dust settles, history will show that massive packs of lithium ion batteries were generally a bad idea and not actually the environmental benefit that's been projected. In fact, I suspect that it will be determined that they've actually had a net negative impact, but I guess we'll see.




I wouldn't bet on that.

New recycling technology allows for cathode material recapture at half the energy cost of previous recycling methods:

https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/environment/simple-energyefficient-recycling-process-for-lithiumion-cathodes

"The simple method Chen and his colleagues developed preserves that microstructure. The researchers first cycled commercial lithium cells until they had lost half their energy storage capacity. They removed the cathode material from their aluminum foil substrate, and soaked it in a hot lithium salt bath. Then they dried the solution to get powder, which they quickly heated to 800 degrees C and then cooled down very slowly.

The process restores the cathode material’s atomic structure and re-injects lithium ions into it. And it uses half the energy of conventional processes. The researchers made new battery cells with the regenerated cathode material. The new cathodes showed the same energy storage capacity, charging time, and lifetime as the originals. The results are reported in the journal Green Chemistry."


Right now, the challenge is disassembly of the battery components. I think it's likely an engineering solution can be found.

JeffX
Profile for JeffX
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-24-2018 14:15
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atomiclightbulb wrote:
JeffX wrote:
atomiclightbulb wrote:
JeffX wrote:
This is almost a week old but I just came across it.

It's interesting that Panasonic is partnering up with Toyota, Nissan, and Honda for the next generation solid state batteries, and seemingly leaving their current primary partner behind.


Jeff, that is a misleading characterization of what the article actually says:

"Japan has recruited automakers Toyota Motor, Nissan Motor and Honda Motor into the country's rush to establish the core technologies for solid-state lithium-ion batteries, a potentially safer and more powerful alternative to the type currently used in electric vehicles.

Battery maker Panasonic also is among the 23 companies in the public-private project begun Friday by Japan's New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, or NEDO."


NEDO is basically a Japanese government organization chartered under Japanese law and funded by Japan's trade ministry. The Japanese government recruiting Japanese companies to work on a government-sponsored project is NOT the same as Panasonic "leaving behind" Tesla.

The entire point of this project is to defend Japanese industry against a tidal wave of Chinese state-sponsored battery R&D and production. It has nothing to do with Tesla.



JeffX wrote:
first of all, a "long range" EV requires about 90-100kWh to achieve a ~300 mile driving range. Which really isn't "long range". So if you're at $90 per kWh, that's still $8-9k in pure cost for a car that still really doesn't compete with a typical petrol sedan with a 14-18 gallon fuel tank.


Battery cost is only one side of the equation.

A BEV's electric motor is much less complex (and therefore less expensive at equivalent economic scale) than a gasoline motor. A BEV doesn't require any transmission, emissions control system, or exhaust pipes. Cost savings from components that aren't needed have to be subtracted from the cost of the battery.


Really? go check the price of a drive unit for Tesla. For something that's supposed to be so simple, and "low maintenance", why are so many of them failing? They're over $10k apiece and they seem to be more much of a consumable than we've been lead to believe. And I don't really care how much savings there are in the electric motors and simple geartrains when the true consumables (batteries) *cost* over $20k per car. It's simple economics, and this point has continued to escape you. Remember, Tesla is very very DEEP in the red and it gets worse with every additional unit that is sold.


JeffX,

(1) You've provided no statistical evidence that Tesla powertrains are "failing" and "consumable". Tesla's Model S rates "above average" in the Consumer Reports reliability surveys.


Since Tesla is far from transparent, I'm not sure we'll ever see any real "statistical evidence" until the bankruptcy proceedings and the forensic analysis of their books. It's likely that they've not properly accounted for it, but if you poke around some of the forums you'll see that plenty of Model 3 owners have suffered rear drive unit failures already.


(2) You failed to understand my post. Re-read the section I bolded and underlined from my original post. Electric Motors at the same economic scale as gasoline engines should be less expensive than complicated gasoline motors. AT THE SAME ECONOMIC SCALE.


Prior to Model 3, Tesla was making maybe 100k-200k induction motors per year for Model S and Model X combined in 2017. Of course replacement motors are going to be hugely expensive when made in this relatively low quantity. Honda has to make 300-350k ICEs just for North American CR-Vs. Worldwide, they probably build millions of units/year of something like the L family.




SHOULD, yes. But the Model 3 is a "mass market" car already. You're either cost competitive or you're not. And now they're building them underneath a freaking tent in the parking lot. That's gotta be great for quality! Give me a break.



(3) Tesla batteries degrade slowly -- to the point that most drivers probably don't need to replace them for the lifetime of the car. Out past 250,000 km, or about 150k miles, the trend line is for the packs to maintain about 90% of new capacity. A Belgian group of Tesla owners has been tracking the data for years: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/t024bMoRiDPIDialGnuKPsg/edit#gid=154312675

An air-cooled LEAF battery degrades quickly. A liquid-cooled Tesla or GM Bolt battery does not.

Also, as economies of scale go up, prices go down.



1. This data is not very scientific - it's all based upon the range calculator in the car. There are all sorts of fudge factors built into the range meter, including margin for aging. Plus, how many people reporting have actually performed full range tests of their cars in repeatable conditions to confirm the numbers? I'm gonna guess it's close to zero.
2. The cost curve is asymptotic. Many of the raw material costs are actually increasing - the only area left to trim costs is in the process and the gains to be made here are nominal, even Tesla has said this.



Exactly. As I've said, these EXPENSIVE BEVs are the only way that the "long range" BEVs make economic sense. People want them and will pay the premium for them as long as they deliver a premium experience. I've said that all along. Now, Elon has finally admitted that they can't build $35k model 3s without losing a shitload of money. I told you that over 2 years ago. The only way Honda or any fiscally responsible company can offer "long range" EVs today or in the next 5 years is if they get into that >$60k price range. And even then it's not a huge money maker due to market pressures. Tesla is so inefficient they're losing tons of money while selling a shitload of >$100k BEVs.

So Honda's not made any "real plans" for long rang BEVs because the idea is so bewilderingly stupid. The technology is immature, dangerous, incredibly expensive, and impractical. Honda is playing it smart and waiting for appropriate battery technology to materialize. Lithium Ion is a dead end.

The Germans are entering the space because A) it fits their market and B) they have no choice with the massive dieselgate scam (I will take this opportunity to remind everyone that I always said "clean diesel" was a scam).

When all the dust settles, history will show that massive packs of lithium ion batteries were generally a bad idea and not actually the environmental benefit that's been projected. In fact, I suspect that it will be determined that they've actually had a net negative impact, but I guess we'll see.



(1) What Elon Musk actually said, is that at present economies of scale, the 35k Tesla Model 3 doesn't make sense. If Tesla gets production north 5k units/week, that may change.

Here's the actual quote from Tweet: "“With production, 1st you need achieve target rate & then smooth out flow to achieve target cost,” Musk tweeted May 20. “Shipping min cost Model 3 right away wd cause Tesla to lose money & die. Need 3 to 6 months after 5k/wk to ship $35k Tesla & live.”

Image of Tweet linked here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2018/05/21/tesla-35000-model-3-musk/#40b1fba7acb4




LOL, and you actually believe anything this man says now?? He has serious credibility issues.


(2) Meanwhile, Honda has wasted much time and effort on the Clarity FCEV program, which is bewilderingly stupid. The technology is fundamentally energy inefficient relative to BEVs, incredibly expensive, and impractical from an infrastructure perspective.

What does a Clarity FCEV cost? About 60k.



Remind me again which company is continually profitable and which one is at the precipice of a blowout bankruptcy?


JeffX
Profile for JeffX
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-24-2018 14:45
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atomiclightbulb wrote:
JeffX wrote:
When all the dust settles, history will show that massive packs of lithium ion batteries were generally a bad idea and not actually the environmental benefit that's been projected. In fact, I suspect that it will be determined that they've actually had a net negative impact, but I guess we'll see.






I wouldn't bet on that.

New recycling technology allows for cathode material recapture at half the energy cost of previous recycling methods:

https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/environment/simple-energyefficient-recycling-process-for-lithiumion-cathodes

"The simple method Chen and his colleagues developed preserves that microstructure. The researchers first cycled commercial lithium cells until they had lost half their energy storage capacity. They removed the cathode material from their aluminum foil substrate, and soaked it in a hot lithium salt bath. Then they dried the solution to get powder, which they quickly heated to 800 degrees C and then cooled down very slowly.

The process restores the cathode material’s atomic structure and re-injects lithium ions into it. And it uses half the energy of conventional processes. The researchers made new battery cells with the regenerated cathode material. The new cathodes showed the same energy storage capacity, charging time, and lifetime as the originals. The results are reported in the journal Green Chemistry."


Right now, the challenge is disassembly of the battery components. I think it's likely an engineering solution can be found.




Interesting development. There's still a long ways to go until it's commercially viable. And the costs are half of "astronomical" so it's an improvement but it doesn't necessarily solve the issue. And there's no mention in the article of being able to recycle NCA chemistry. It just says "Chen is now refining his process so it can be used for any lithium battery material."


Lithium batteries have anodes made of graphite and cathodes made of lithium metal oxides, where the metal is some combination of cobalt, nickel, manganese, and iron. Less than five percent of old lithium batteries are recycled today. As millions of large EV batteries retire in the next decade, we’re going to send even bigger mountains of flammable, toxic battery waste to landfills Plus, that waste contains valuable metals. There is serious concern that supplies of critical metals like cobalt and lithium are dwindling. Recycling is going to be key if we’re to keep up with battery demand.


Yeah, this sounds like it's great for the future of our planet.

atomiclightbulb
Profile for atomiclightbulb
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-24-2018 15:36
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JeffX wrote:
atomiclightbulb wrote:
JeffX,

(1) You've provided no statistical evidence that Tesla powertrains are "failing" and "consumable". Tesla's Model S rates "above average" in the Consumer Reports reliability surveys.



Since Tesla is far from transparent, I'm not sure we'll ever see any real "statistical evidence" until the bankruptcy proceedings and the forensic analysis of their books. It's likely that they've not properly accounted for it, but if you poke around some of the forums you'll see that plenty of Model 3 owners have suffered rear drive unit failures already.


Since you admit that (a) you have no solid data, and (b) make baseless speculation that drive failures are "not properly accounted for", I don't think you have anything to stand on here.

People with problems are also more likely to complain, giving the appearance of widespread issues. This is true of virtually every car forum I've visited, including many Honda communities.




(2) You failed to understand my post. Re-read the section I bolded and underlined from my original post. Electric Motors at the same economic scale as gasoline engines should be less expensive than complicated gasoline motors. AT THE SAME ECONOMIC SCALE.


Prior to Model 3, Tesla was making maybe 100k-200k induction motors per year for Model S and Model X combined in 2017. Of course replacement motors are going to be hugely expensive when made in this relatively low quantity. Honda has to make 300-350k ICEs just for North American CR-Vs. Worldwide, they probably build millions of units/year of something like the L family.




SHOULD, yes. But the Model 3 is a "mass market" car already. You're either cost competitive or you're not. And now they're building them underneath a freaking tent in the parking lot. That's gotta be great for quality! Give me a break.


You cite a cost of $10,000 to replace a Tesla powertrain unit, but you don't say which one.

Note that Model S and Model X use an entirely different motor than Model 3. The S and X use induction motors, while the Model 3 uses a much more efficient (but lower performance) permanent magnet motor.

Prices for Model S and X drive units should be well known, since the S has been on the market since late 2012, and many cars are out of warranty. Model 3, on the other hand, has been in production less than a year. I don't think many people are going out to buy replacement drive units for the Model 3, given that every Model 3 built is still under warranty.

You cannot credibly extrapolate the cost of a Model 3 motor ("mass market") from the cost of much lower volume Model S or X motor which uses an entirely different architecture. This is like saying that the cost of a replacement 1.5T for a Honda Civic can be derived from the cost to replace a J35 from a Honda Accord Touring.




(3) Tesla batteries degrade slowly -- to the point that most drivers probably don't need to replace them for the lifetime of the car. Out past 250,000 km, or about 150k miles, the trend line is for the packs to maintain about 90% of new capacity. A Belgian group of Tesla owners has been tracking the data for years: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/t024bMoRiDPIDialGnuKPsg/edit#gid=154312675

An air-cooled LEAF battery degrades quickly. A liquid-cooled Tesla or GM Bolt battery does not.

Also, as economies of scale go up, prices go down.



1. This data is not very scientific - it's all based upon the range calculator in the car. There are all sorts of fudge factors built into the range meter, including margin for aging. Plus, how many people reporting have actually performed full range tests of their cars in repeatable conditions to confirm the numbers? I'm gonna guess it's close to zero.
2. The cost curve is asymptotic. Many of the raw material costs are actually increasing - the only area left to trim costs is in the process and the gains to be made here are nominal, even Tesla has said this.


I don't think this is any less accurate than crowdsourced fuel economy data from websites like Fuelly (which I find are actually surprising accurate). Over hundreds of thousands and then millions of miles, general trends become observable, even if they are not precisely accurate.

The fact is that LEAF batteries rapidly degrade and die. Tesla and Bolt batteries do not. This is the reality, whether one likes it or not.





Exactly. As I've said, these EXPENSIVE BEVs are the only way that the "long range" BEVs make economic sense. People want them and will pay the premium for them as long as they deliver a premium experience. I've said that all along. Now, Elon has finally admitted that they can't build $35k model 3s without losing a shitload of money. I told you that over 2 years ago. The only way Honda or any fiscally responsible company can offer "long range" EVs today or in the next 5 years is if they get into that >$60k price range. And even then it's not a huge money maker due to market pressures. Tesla is so inefficient they're losing tons of money while selling a shitload of >$100k BEVs.

So Honda's not made any "real plans" for long rang BEVs because the idea is so bewilderingly stupid. The technology is immature, dangerous, incredibly expensive, and impractical. Honda is playing it smart and waiting for appropriate battery technology to materialize. Lithium Ion is a dead end.

The Germans are entering the space because A) it fits their market and B) they have no choice with the massive dieselgate scam (I will take this opportunity to remind everyone that I always said "clean diesel" was a scam).

When all the dust settles, history will show that massive packs of lithium ion batteries were generally a bad idea and not actually the environmental benefit that's been projected. In fact, I suspect that it will be determined that they've actually had a net negative impact, but I guess we'll see.



(1) What Elon Musk actually said, is that at present economies of scale, the 35k Tesla Model 3 doesn't make sense. If Tesla gets production north 5k units/week, that may change.

Here's the actual quote from Tweet: "“With production, 1st you need achieve target rate & then smooth out flow to achieve target cost,” Musk tweeted May 20. “Shipping min cost Model 3 right away wd cause Tesla to lose money & die. Need 3 to 6 months after 5k/wk to ship $35k Tesla & live.”

Image of Tweet linked here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2018/05/21/tesla-35000-model-3-musk/#40b1fba7acb4


LOL, and you actually believe anything this man says now?? He has serious credibility issues.


That is really unfair on your part.

What you are saying is that Elon is believable when he says what you think he said, and then turning around and telling me that he is not believable when I point out what he really said.





(2) Meanwhile, Honda has wasted much time and effort on the Clarity FCEV program, which is bewilderingly stupid. The technology is fundamentally energy inefficient relative to BEVs, incredibly expensive, and impractical from an infrastructure perspective.

What does a Clarity FCEV cost? About 60k.



Remind me again which company is continually profitable and which one is at the precipice of a blowout bankruptcy?



Honda's financial position relative to Tesla has nothing to do with the technological merits of the platforms.

FCEVs are fundamentally much less energy efficient than BEVs, and require massively more infrastructure support. Your reply does not change the fact that Honda has spent considerable resources developing a pricey car that I believe is considerably inferior to what they could have achieved had they chosen to create a dedicated BEV.




atomiclightbulb
Profile for atomiclightbulb
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-24-2018 15:46
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JeffX wrote:
atomiclightbulb wrote:
JeffX wrote:
When all the dust settles, history will show that massive packs of lithium ion batteries were generally a bad idea and not actually the environmental benefit that's been projected. In fact, I suspect that it will be determined that they've actually had a net negative impact, but I guess we'll see.






I wouldn't bet on that.

New recycling technology allows for cathode material recapture at half the energy cost of previous recycling methods:

https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/environment/simple-energyefficient-recycling-process-for-lithiumion-cathodes

"The simple method Chen and his colleagues developed preserves that microstructure. The researchers first cycled commercial lithium cells until they had lost half their energy storage capacity. They removed the cathode material from their aluminum foil substrate, and soaked it in a hot lithium salt bath. Then they dried the solution to get powder, which they quickly heated to 800 degrees C and then cooled down very slowly.

The process restores the cathode material’s atomic structure and re-injects lithium ions into it. And it uses half the energy of conventional processes. The researchers made new battery cells with the regenerated cathode material. The new cathodes showed the same energy storage capacity, charging time, and lifetime as the originals. The results are reported in the journal Green Chemistry."


Right now, the challenge is disassembly of the battery components. I think it's likely an engineering solution can be found.




Interesting development. There's still a long ways to go until it's commercially viable. And the costs are half of "astronomical" so it's an improvement but it doesn't necessarily solve the issue. And there's no mention in the article of being able to recycle NCA chemistry. It just says "Chen is now refining his process so it can be used for any lithium battery material."


Lithium batteries have anodes made of graphite and cathodes made of lithium metal oxides, where the metal is some combination of cobalt, nickel, manganese, and iron. Less than five percent of old lithium batteries are recycled today. As millions of large EV batteries retire in the next decade, we’re going to send even bigger mountains of flammable, toxic battery waste to landfills Plus, that waste contains valuable metals. There is serious concern that supplies of critical metals like cobalt and lithium are dwindling. Recycling is going to be key if we’re to keep up with battery demand.


Yeah, this sounds like it's great for the future of our planet.



My point is that people should not assume that just because battery recycling is rare and expensive TODAY, that it will continue to be so in the future.

If people stopped trying to innovate, based on some hurdles that exit today, technology would never advance.

qingcong
Profile for qingcong
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-26-2018 21:55
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atomiclightbulb wrote:

(1) What Elon Musk actually said, is that at present economies of scale, the 35k Tesla Model 3 doesn't make sense. If Tesla gets production north 5k units/week, that may change.

Here's the actual quote from Tweet: "“With production, 1st you need achieve target rate & then smooth out flow to achieve target cost,” Musk tweeted May 20. “Shipping min cost Model 3 right away wd cause Tesla to lose money & die. Need 3 to 6 months after 5k/wk to ship $35k Tesla & live.”

Image of Tweet linked here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2018/05/21/tesla-35000-model-3-musk/#40b1fba7acb4




I'm not sure why anyone trusts Elon, given his history of promises not met. Also does he not check his grammar before he tweets? I had to read that over a few times to understand what he was talking about. Elon is probably pretty good at getting stuff started up and doing innovative stuff, but it takes a different skill set to run a company.

Nobody can predict the future, but personally I have a hard time seeing Tesla sustaining its current pace. Elon has achieved some crazy stuff but he is not god. I have to give Tesla credit though, in a few decades we're going to look back and Tesla's going to be the company that bought EVs to the mainstream. Whether or not they're still around in the long run, who knows, but they've definitely changed the game.

sadlerau
Profile for sadlerau
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-26-2018 22:44
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Call me skeptical when it comes to "mainstream" EV transport.

Not sure about tax structures over in the US, but down here the Federal Government and state Governments rake a lot of money in fuel taxes, and I'm not sure how they will recoup that income if most everyone goes EV? Up taxes and charges on electricity supply [and thus penalize home owners?] or increase vehicle and driver license fees markedly? Paying a few cents in the dollar every time you fill up is a lot less painful than forking out mega dollars for new licenses once a year........

Dren
Profile for Dren
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-27-2018 07:24
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sadlerau wrote:
Call me skeptical when it comes to "mainstream" EV transport.

Not sure about tax structures over in the US, but down here the Federal Government and state Governments rake a lot of money in fuel taxes, and I'm not sure how they will recoup that income if most everyone goes EV? Up taxes and charges on electricity supply [and thus penalize home owners?] or increase vehicle and driver license fees markedly? Paying a few cents in the dollar every time you fill up is a lot less painful than forking out mega dollars for new licenses once a year........



I'm sure they'll do it in small increments so there is little push back after implemented.

We have federal and state gas tax. It's levied per gallon. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_taxes_in_the_United_States#cite_note-IN-Jul-2017-9

I live in Indiana so my total excise tax per gallon is about 46 cents. Then, since I'm lucky enough to live in Indiana, they levy sales tax on top of that which is around 7%. If you figure how much gas is sold every day, it adds up to a lot of tax revenue.

KaizenDo
Profile for KaizenDo
Re: Nikkei: Battery wars: Japan teams up for next-gen electric cars    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-27-2018 11:38
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I assume governments may create fitting laws for taxing EVs.

Just for example, in Germany there are different percentage of consumption tax, depending on whether you sell an hot dog to a person for takeout and he walks away, or you have some kind of seating place for people and they sit there and eat.

Likewise, it could be ruled that BEVs have to be charged by some kind of charging interface with a certain protocol, and this will send consumption data to government tax office.

JeffX
Profile for JeffX
Drone footage of the tent line reveals more deception    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-27-2018 15:00
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qingcong wrote:
atomiclightbulb wrote:

(1) What Elon Musk actually said, is that at present economies of scale, the 35k Tesla Model 3 doesn't make sense. If Tesla gets production north 5k units/week, that may change.

Here's the actual quote from Tweet: "“With production, 1st you need achieve target rate & then smooth out flow to achieve target cost,” Musk tweeted May 20. “Shipping min cost Model 3 right away wd cause Tesla to lose money & die. Need 3 to 6 months after 5k/wk to ship $35k Tesla & live.”

Image of Tweet linked here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2018/05/21/tesla-35000-model-3-musk/#40b1fba7acb4




I'm not sure why anyone trusts Elon, given his history of promises not met. Also does he not check his grammar before he tweets? I had to read that over a few times to understand what he was talking about. Elon is probably pretty good at getting stuff started up and doing innovative stuff, but it takes a different skill set to run a company.

Nobody can predict the future, but personally I have a hard time seeing Tesla sustaining its current pace. Elon has achieved some crazy stuff but he is not god. I have to give Tesla credit though, in a few decades we're going to look back and Tesla's going to be the company that bought EVs to the mainstream. Whether or not they're still around in the long run, who knows, but they've definitely changed the game.



Yes, why would anybody trust this guy when he continually spreads a false narrative. This shit is simply pathetic. Is THIS how they're going to get to volume with the Model 3?! It's actually sad how many people have been so deeply deceived.







Last edited by JeffX on 06-27-2018 16:04
CarPhreakD
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Re: Drone footage of the tent line reveals more deception    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-27-2018 16:30
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I guess since that is located in the desert, there's nothing inherently wrong with it... except for the extreme temperature fluctuations and potentially debris contamination (hopefully they don't actually build any components there) It would be horrible if that was during the rainy season though.
JeffX
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Re: Drone footage of the tent line reveals more deception    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-27-2018 16:47
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CarPhreakD wrote:
I guess since that is located in the desert, there's nothing inherently wrong with it... except for the extreme temperature fluctuations and potentially debris contamination (hopefully they don't actually build any components there) It would be horrible if that was during the rainy season though.


this tent has no hardwired power. cars are loaded onto the "line" by forklift.

surely you've seen this:
http://www.autonews.com/article/20180625/OEM05/180629877/



Last edited by JeffX on 06-27-2018 17:06
sadlerau
Profile for sadlerau
Re: Drone footage of the tent line reveals more deception    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-27-2018 19:37
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JeffX wrote:
CarPhreakD wrote:
I guess since that is located in the desert, there's nothing inherently wrong with it... except for the extreme temperature fluctuations and potentially debris contamination (hopefully they don't actually build any components there) It would be horrible if that was during the rainy season though.


this tent has no hardwired power. cars are loaded onto the "line" by forklift.

surely you've seen this:
http://www.autonews.com/article/20180625/OEM05/180629877/



You have to love this comment -

Tony Serra

It's only appropriate that this circus finally has a tent.

:D

Nick GravesX
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Re: Drone footage of the tent line reveals more deception    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-28-2018 05:03
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:D

Bit like post-WW2 Germany, where the bombed-out factories were cleared out and they worked under temporary canvas roofs. But things were less sophisticated back then.

CarPhreakD
Profile for CarPhreakD
Re: Drone footage of the tent line reveals more deception    (Score: 1, Normal) 06-28-2018 12:20
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Yes, I actually don't have an issue with loading cars by forklift (because this is something I have witnessed, albeit less crudely, in specialty vehicle production lines); the issue is the fact that this thing was cobbled together and employs... a lot of manual processes. Volume production this is not, and I think a lot of people had to wonder if Tesla would have to go through this kind of crap if they had simply allowed themselves another 6 months to build pilot vehicles and slowly ramp up production.

I mean the worst thing to me right now is that as the article says, Musk claims that it's temporary but unless they decide to rework at least a couple of lines, this feels more like something that is going to stick around for quite a while because they can't keep up with supply. It's threatening to turn into a shitshow that the company can't dig itself away from.

I guess in this way, you can now claim that your Tesla Model 3 was truly built by hand...


 
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