DCR
 |
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NorCalSales wrote:
Current turn rate on Civics in the west coast region - 12 days.
Sorry, that is absurdly quick, between 45-60 day turn is solid. Numbers don't lie.
DCR where are you located?
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49504 zip code.
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330R
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Colin wrote:
And that's why I don't complain in every thread.
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But that's the thing - you cite me for being "so black and white", but you're the one constantly talking about people "complaining in every thread". Black and white is to say extremes, like always and never. You're saying there is always complaining. I'm saying, that's you being black and white, not me. If I am what you claim, can I in turn say you always complain about the complainers? "always same complaints", "every thread descends into the same old arguments". No, they don't, that's being "so black and white".
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Colin
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330R wrote:
Colin wrote:
And that's why I don't complain in every thread.
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You're saying there is always complaining. I'm saying, that's you being black and white, not me. If I am what you claim, can I in turn say you always complain about the complainers?
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Absolutely not. I am 100% sure that I don't always complain. On that statement it's 'black and white.' Why don't you just give up, you're clearly wrong in this case. ;-)
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330R
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Colin wrote:
Absolutely not. I am 100% sure that I don't always complain. On that statement it's 'black and white.' Why don't you just give up, you're clearly wrong in this case. ;-)
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Let's put it this way, you're the number one complainer about Honda criticism, bar none. Make of that what you will, that's a fact. Whether you say it in every thread or not makes no difference to me. When I see "Colin", one of the top things I think is, 'every post descends into the same arguments guy'. I'm not wrong at all. You say "every thread turns into complaining". That's being black and white, what you accuse me of. If I am what you say, then I'll be that guy for you and say you always complain. In other words, you want to paint me with that brush, fine, I'll return the favor.
I don't complain in every thread, and not every thread has complaining in it. That makes you wrong, not me, because you're the one making false blanket statements.
Your problem is you can't handle people criticizing Honda. It's tantmount to hating Honda. You said so yourself on page 1.
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Colin
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330R wrote:
Colin wrote:
Absolutely not. I am 100% sure that I don't always complain. On that statement it's 'black and white.' Why don't you just give up, you're clearly wrong in this case. ;-)
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Let's put it this way, you're the number one complainer about Honda criticism, bar none. Make of that what you will, that's a fact. Whether you say it in every thread or not makes no difference to me. When I see "Colin", one of the top things I think is, 'every post descends into the same arguments guy'. I'm not wrong at all. You say "every thread turns into complaining". That's being black and white, what you accuse me of. If I am what you say, then I'll be that guy for you and say you always complain. In other words, you want to paint me with that brush, fine, I'll return the favor.
I don't complain in every thread, and not every thread has complaining in it. That makes you wrong, not me, because you're the one making false blanket statements.
Your problem is you can't handle people criticizing Honda. It's tantmount to hating Honda. You said so yourself on page 1.
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You're so wrong it's not even funny. I've posted dozens of times in the last month and maybe commented that people complain too much 2-3 times. Give it a rest.
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330R
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Colin wrote:
You're so wrong it's not even funny. I've posted dozens of times in the last month and maybe commented that people complain too much 2-3 times. Give it a rest.
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I guess I just have a really good memory, hmm? Maybe you wish I was wrong. This is your "black and white" argument to rest, not mine. Before you say every thread descends into arguing and accuse me of seeing things only in extremes, maybe you should stop and ask is that really true. You got your argument thread you wanted. You decided to chime in and tell me everything is hunky-dory in Hondaland with the less than hardcore Honda fans. That opened the floor for more off topic discussion.. er, arguing, right.
In closing, Mister Opportunity needs to die in a fire.
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TonyEX
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DCR wrote:
NorCalSales wrote:
Current turn rate on Civics in the west coast region - 12 days.
Sorry, that is absurdly quick, between 45-60 day turn is solid. Numbers don't lie.
DCR where are you located?
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49504 zip code.
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Ford and GM country, huh?
I'm in 92603, the 949... soon to be the Capital of South California.
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danielgr
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I still see posts on Honda's post April sales drop being explained by "lack of competitiveness" of Honda products.
Well, before I tried to explained it with figures, but it seems that wasn't enough, so this time I made some graphs.
On the 1st one (production) you can see how:
- On early 2009 Honda had cut production massively, in a bid to limit the stock pile they'd built during the 08' crisis.
- Production started to recover with increasing sales, and definitely came back to normal after CARS program burned remaining stocks Aug 09'.
- Traditionally, Honda builds less cars in December, probably because January is a slow-selling month and the US is a Christian country where associates enjoy year-end holidays.
- During the whole 2010 Honda was running factories at nearly 100% capacity (with the reduced post-crisis workforce).
- 2011 started even stronger than 2010 until... April, exactly 1 month after the quake, once Honda plants run out of JP-made parts and production halved all of a sudden ... I will not post the JP charts, but in JP production "vanished" already since March ('cause JP-made parts for JP-made cars use considerably shorter supply times).
On the 2nd one (sales) you can see :
- 2009 was severely affected by crisis recovery and CARS program
- 2010 was a rather typical sales year: slow start, gaining up momentum in spring through summer, then falling down slowly in Autumn until year end spike.
- 2011 started following the typical trend, stronger than 2011 amid industry slow recovery, until suddenly the quake disrupted the natural sales course (late-spring -> summer uptake).
As one would expect, real impact of production crash is only felt a month later sales-wise, and since production has remained limited to ~60k, sales have fallen until inventories have nearly dried-up, with Jul sales ~ June production + JP imports (~70k):
- Feb : 98059
- Mar : 133650
- Apr : 124799
- May : 90773
- Jun : 83892
- Jul : 71100
It is therefore reasonable to expect Jul was the bottom, and Aug/Sept should show some (slow) recovery, though real recovery won't be seen until late Sept/Oct when factories will have had ~1 month at ~100% (excepted Civic).
On the 3rd one (sales vs. prod), you can see (again) how:
- Honda was burning post-08crisis inventory in 2009 (until CARS)
- Production came back to normal in 2010, with Honda typical clockwork manufacturing (making exactly as many cars as they sell)
- 2011 started as 2010 until ... the quake. Sales follow the ascending trend until May, or about 1month after the production crash; from then on it's a downwards slope (instead of the usual seasonal sales peak in summer months).
Now, I sure hope that the fact Honda recent poor sales performance is due to quake-related production woes is obvious to anyone. I'm really tired of pointless badmouthing here and on clueless (or purposely biased) media.
Last edited by danielgr on 08-05-2011 09:28
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superchg
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danielgr wrote:
Now, I sure hope that the fact Honda recent poor sales performance is due to quake-related production woes is obvious to anyone.
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I checked my local Honda dealer's inventory of 2012 models this morning. They have exactly 2!
Let's hope Honda can get their inventories replenished asap, because I'm sure some of the "need" buyers may have had to purchase other brands recently.
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MalcolmR
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Colin wrote:
330R wrote:
Colin wrote:
330R wrote:
There's more to sample - and I'm a Honda enthusiast, former died-in-the-wool uber "fanboy", right. So consider that, and consider what people who are less "hardcore Honda" are thinking.
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Actually, I think that less 'hardcore Honda' customers are quite fine with the product offerings.
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What's to keep them from being quite fine with others' product offerings, though? By "hardcore" in my earlier post, I didn't mean in performance terms. I mean in loyalty.
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Probably the only thing keeping them 'fine' is that despite the hatred here, for many people a car like Accord is still a competitive package amongst the current competition.
For most buyers, it's more engaging to drive than the front strut cars like Camry-Altima-Malibu-Fusion...
More reliable than Malibu-Fusion-Passat...
And will probably resell better than Sonata-Optima-Passat-Malibu-Fusion...
Anyway, I love how every single post descends into the same old arguments. This was a simple post stating that production will soon improve.
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.
Thank you, Colin.
Agreed on all points including last line.
Malcolm
:)
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danielgr
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Seems "recovery" is still a few months far in the future...
- April : 53,624 (-52%) ; source Honda
- May : 59,741 (-44%) ; source Honda
- June : 62,900 (-38%) ; source Honda
- June : 60,766 (-40%) ; source AutomotiveNews estimate
As one would expect, recovery is being faster in JP (and JP sales are already bouncing up for some models), but since shipping also takes longer, I wouldn't expect Honda US Aug sales to change much from Jul.
Only thing I can see as having a positive impact is dealers easing their position on remaining cars based on positive prospects (similarly to NorCalSales; as he said though, he is at least one month ahead of actual uptake ...)
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iutodd
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danielgr wrote:
Seems "recovery" is still a few months far in the future...
- April : 53,624 (-52%) ; source Honda
- May : 59,741 (-44%) ; source Honda
- June : 62,900 (-38%) ; source Honda
- June : 60,766 (-40%) ; source AutomotiveNews estimate
As one would expect, recovery is being faster in JP (and JP sales are already bouncing up for some models), but since shipping also takes longer, I wouldn't expect Honda US Aug sales to change much from Jul.
Only thing I can see as having a positive impact is dealers easing their position on remaining cars based on positive prospects (similarly to NorCalSales; as he said though, he is at least one month ahead of actual uptake ...)
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Good information danielgr. I added up the numbers and from the beginning of April to the end of July they produced 237,031 cars (I'm assuming that number includes Acura). They sold 341,152 Honda's and 38,814 Acura's during that same period (379,966 vehicles total) according to the press releases. Cars.com and Autotrader.com both have about 45,000 new Honda's listed nationwide...it seems like production is ticking back up just in time.
Last year during the same period they sold 403,593 Honda's and 46,341 Acura's. It's a good thing sales were up 18.5% through March or this year would have been really tough for Honda. If inventories are anywhere close to normal by the end of August they might be able to pull out either a break even or slight increase in sales from 2010 (amazingly July is the first month of this year that Honda has been down on sales from last year: -2.6%) - which is kind of amazing really.
What's really interesting is how Toyota and Honda are really driving down sales of the industry as a whole. The SAAR is only at about 12.25 million (last year the auto industry as a whole sold 11.5 million vehicles - they might beat that this year but the SAAR is based solely upon this months sales - it has been below 12 million the past few months - though if Honda is going to recover they need the SAAR around 13 million) - the SAAR during the first three months of the year was around 13 million (and Ford expects it to be there by years end - I think they expect Honda and Toyota to start pushing cars hard Sept-Dec.). We'll see what happens - if there really is an MMCed Fit coming along with the Pilot and Ridgeline Honda might not have to push cars that hard (especially if the new Civic takes off). (I don't know if the CR-V will make it before the end of the year.)
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danielgr
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This was posted on another thread but hidden on the Mexican news. I do believe this deserves a post on its own, so here you go.
From the PR:
In addition to the new auto plant in Mexico, Honda recently announced plans to expand production at several of its plants in the U.S. and Canada:
- The Honda plant in Greensburg, Ind., which builds the Civic Sedan and Civic Natural Gas vehicle, will add a new second shift in October of this year.
- The Marysville, Ohio, auto plant which builds the Accord Sedan and Coupe, and the Acura TL, will reinstate second-shift production on Line 1 by the end of 2011, returning to full, two-shift production for the first time since January 2009.
- In Canada, Alliston Plant 1, which builds the Civic Sedan, Civic Coupe, Civic Si coupe and sedan, and the Civic HF, will return to full, two-shift operations in September. In May, the plant consolidated its two shifts into one-shift operation to cope with parts supply issues following the earthquake in Japan. |
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danielgr
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danielgr wrote:
Seems "recovery" is still a few months far in the future...
- April : 53,624 (-52%) ; source Honda
- May : 59,741 (-44%) ; source Honda
- June : 62,900 (-38%) ; source Honda
- July : 60,766 (-40%) ; source AutomotiveNews estimate
As one would expect, recovery is being faster in JP (and JP sales are already bouncing up for some models), but since shipping also takes longer, I wouldn't expect Honda US Aug sales to change much from Jul.
Only thing I can see as having a positive impact is dealers easing their position on remaining cars based on positive prospects (similarly to NorCalSales; as he said though, he is at least one month ahead of actual uptake ...)
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- April : 53,624 (-52%) ; source Honda
- May : 59,741 (-44%) ; source Honda
- June : 62,900 (-38%) ; source Honda
- July : 49,323 (-51.6%) ; source Honda
I'd say that either:
- AHM gave holidays to everyone, in preparation of all the extra-hours they are going to need to ramp up production in the last part of the year..., or
- Factories lost prod time by preparing for the extra shifts to be added later in the year (guess they have to teach workers, etc.)
FYI:
- prod in JP was up +65% in July vs. June (though still short 18% from July10),
- exports to NA doubled (though still 27% off 2010).
Those are clear signs that recovery is coming at Honda's home, and assuming cars and parts produced in JP reflect about 2month later in US prod, August could have been the final production & sales bottom for Honda.
Do not expect 2010 sales levels through Sept though, because that is still unlikely to happen given these figures. Oct/Nov could be the point when 2011 monthly sales finally reach close to 2010 levels.
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danielgr
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According to Automotive News, Aug production numbers doubled those of July, nearly matching those of 2010 for the first time since the quake. It'll still take a month or two before factories are working at full capacity and stocks are replenished, but together with JP's July export recovery, it seems that Honda is finally back.
- April : 53,624 (-52%) ; source Honda
- May : 59,741 (-44%) ; source Honda
- June : 62,900 (-38%) ; source Honda
- July : 49,323 (-51.6%) ; source Honda
- August: 109,397 (-5%) ; source AutomotiveNews
For reference, JP exports to NA:
- Feb : 17,959 (+39.2%)
- Mar : 15,106 (-1.0%)
- Apr : 4,544 (-73.1%)
- May : 6,331 (-59.0%)
- Jun : 7,583 (-65.6%)
- Jul : 14,614 (-26.9%)
Quake happened on 3/11.
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NorCalSales
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Things are pretty bad still on the ground, we are back into the 40's on cars every morning, 45 more incoming in the next ten days and most are sold before they get there. Currently running a 2.3 day average turn on Civics, and have just over 10 days total supply on the ground. Production is better for sure but this is a busy time, if I see another dealer trade list I might puke. Factories will need to run at about 120% for a good 4-5 months before what is on the ground can catch up.
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TonyEX
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NorCalSales wrote:
Things are pretty bad still on the ground, we are back into the 40's on cars every morning, 45 more incoming in the next ten days and most are sold before they get there. Currently running a 2.3 day average turn on Civics, and have just over 10 days total supply on the ground. Production is better for sure but this is a busy time, if I see another dealer trade list I might puke. Factories will need to run at about 120% for a good 4-5 months before what is on the ground can catch up.
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That sucks... we need another car by Christmas.
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danielgr
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TonyE wrote:
NorCalSales wrote:
Things are pretty bad still on the ground, we are back into the 40's on cars every morning, 45 more incoming in the next ten days and most are sold before they get there. Currently running a 2.3 day average turn on Civics, and have just over 10 days total supply on the ground. Production is better for sure but this is a busy time, if I see another dealer trade list I might puke. Factories will need to run at about 120% for a good 4-5 months before what is on the ground can catch up. |
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Imho, that's good timing to buy Tony... you'll see.
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TonyEX
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danielgr wrote:
TonyE wrote:
NorCalSales wrote:
Things are pretty bad still on the ground, we are back into the 40's on cars every morning, 45 more incoming in the next ten days and most are sold before they get there. Currently running a 2.3 day average turn on Civics, and have just over 10 days total supply on the ground. Production is better for sure but this is a busy time, if I see another dealer trade list I might puke. Factories will need to run at about 120% for a good 4-5 months before what is on the ground can catch up. |
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Imho, that's good timing to buy Tony... you'll see.
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What we need is for AHM to start leasing cars back to employees... then the used car lot will have low mileage cars for us to buy.
The lease upgrades were frozen last April and everyone's lease has been frozen (for those who were due changing since April).
Unfortunately, the next batch of used cars will have higher than normal mileage and the Car Administration Dept. may decide to auction them instead of offering them to the associates.
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CivicB18
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Toyota announced yesterday that they are back to full capacity. I saw that on the news last night as the plant in Georgetown is about 20 miles from me.
~Patrick
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A77
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Some supply has improved for us - Odyssey, CRV (which was never bad) but Civic supply is getting worse not better, absolutely no Fits at all on the horizon, no Accord coupes, next to no Ridgelines, few pilots etc. There is a lot of October and november production though and i think the current deals and advertising is reckoning people will wait 2 months. My bet is December will be the first month without big problems. That`s usually pretty dead month anyway.
Really wonder what is going to happen with Fits now that Civics are cheaper in Canada at least.
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TonyEX
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CivicB18 wrote:
Toyota announced yesterday that they are back to full capacity. I saw that on the news last night as the plant in Georgetown is about 20 miles from me.
~Patrick
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Well, the Evil Empire powering back up its Death Stars does me no good.. :-P
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NorCalSales
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100% won't bring inventory up, that means you are only producing enough to keep up with sales. Dealers need 4-5 months of 120% to get inventories back up to a 75-90 day turn average.
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danielgr
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A77 wrote:
Some supply has improved for us - Odyssey, CRV (which was never bad) but Civic supply is getting worse not better, absolutely no Fits at all on the horizon, no Accord coupes, next to no Ridgelines, few pilots etc. There is a lot of October and november production though and i think the current deals and advertising is reckoning people will wait 2 months. My bet is December will be the first month without big problems. That`s usually pretty dead month anyway.
Really wonder what is going to happen with Fits now that Civics are cheaper in Canada at least.
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danielgr
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NorCalSales wrote:
100% won't bring inventory up, that means you are only producing enough to keep up with sales. Dealers need 4-5 months of 120% to get inventories back up to a 75-90 day turn average.
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danielgr
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So it seems that "production recovery is now achieved", with September numbers ~+10% over past year (and also over Aug). With Indiana plant capacity doubling (from 100k to 200k Civics/year) starting Oct 24 (link), it seems that Honda will be "just on time for Christmas". Dealers stock will still take a bit to recover, but I wouldn't be surprised if Oct was the first month to post a sales increase since 3/11 quake.
- Apr : 53,624 (-52%) ; source Honda
- May : 59,741 (-44%) ; source Honda
- Jun : 62,900 (-38%) ; source Honda
- Jul : 49,323 (-51.6%) ; source Honda
- Aug: 109,397 (-5%) ; source Honda
- Sep: 119,425 (+9%) ; source AutomotiveNews
For reference, JP exports to NA:
- Feb : 17,959 (+39.2%)
- Mar : 15,106 (-1.0%)
- Apr : 4,544 (-73.1%)
- May : 6,331 (-59.0%)
- Jun : 7,583 (-65.6%)
- Jul : 14,614 (-26.9%)
- Aug : 12,481 (-35.4%)
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danielgr
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danielgr wrote:
So it seems that "production recovery is now achieved", with September numbers ~+10% over past year (and also over Aug). With Indiana plant capacity doubling (from 100k to 200k Civics/year) starting Oct 24 (link), it seems that Honda will be "just on time for Christmas". Dealers stock will still take a bit to recover, but I wouldn't be surprised if Oct was the first month to post a sales increase since 3/11 quake.
- Apr : 53,624 (-52%) ; source Honda
- May : 59,741 (-44%) ; source Honda
- Jun : 62,900 (-38%) ; source Honda
- Jul : 49,323 (-51.6%) ; source Honda
- Aug: 109,397 (-5%) ; source Honda
- Sep: 119,425 (+9%) ; source AutomotiveNews
For reference, JP exports to NA:
- Feb : 17,959 (+39.2%)
- Mar : 15,106 (-1.0%)
- Apr : 4,544 (-73.1%)
- May : 6,331 (-59.0%)
- Jun : 7,583 (-65.6%)
- Jul : 14,614 (-26.9%)
- Aug : 12,481 (-35.4%)
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NorCalSales
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Still only 65 on hand but 87 in transit in the next 2 weeks... I can see the light finally!
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danielgr
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danielgr wrote:
So it seems that "production recovery is now achieved", with September numbers ~+10% over past year (and also over Aug). With Indiana plant capacity doubling (from 100k to 200k Civics/year) starting Oct 24 (link), it seems that Honda will be "just on time for Christmas". Dealers stock will still take a bit to recover, but I wouldn't be surprised if Oct was the first month to post a sales increase since 3/11 quake.
- Apr : 53,624 (-52%) ; source Honda
- May : 59,741 (-44%) ; source Honda
- Jun : 62,900 (-38%) ; source Honda
- Jul : 49,323 (-51.6%) ; source Honda
- Aug: 109,397 (-5%) ; source Honda
- Sep: 119,425 (+9%) ; source AutomotiveNews
For reference, JP exports to NA:
- Feb : 17,959 (+39.2%)
- Mar : 15,106 (-1.0%)
- Apr : 4,544 (-73.1%)
- May : 6,331 (-59.0%)
- Jun : 7,583 (-65.6%)
- Jul : 14,614 (-26.9%)
- Aug : 12,481 (-35.4%)
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Honda Manufacturing of Indiana, LLC (HMIN), which produces the popular Civic Sedan and alternative-fuel Civic Natural Gas, today began a second production shift for the first time, which increases production at the plant to its full 200,000-unit annual capacity and adds approximately 1,000 new associates to Honda's operations in Indiana.
The addition of a second shift at HMIN follows the return to normal production levels at all seven of the Honda automobile plants in North America, following the disruption of parts supplies as a result of the March 11, 2011, earthquake and tsunami in Japan.
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NorCalSales
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92 on hand, 63 in transit.
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