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  TOV News > American Honda December Sales Up 25.5 Percent > > Re: Why so optimistic?

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Restless
Profile for Restless
Why so optimistic? [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-05-2011 05:56
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2010 by brands


Ok, Honda ends the year better than Toyota and Suzuki... is this a surprise?!

Brand Total Sales 2010 vs 2007
Honda 1,230,480 vs 1,551,542
Nissan 908,570 vs 1,068,238
Toyota 1,763,595 vs 2,620,825
Hyundai 538,228 vs 467,009
VW 256,830 vs 230,572

Nissan lost 10%, Honda 20%, Toyota 50%
True, while Hyundai&Kia do gain some %, the penetration is small so far.
Spearsoft
Profile for Spearsoft
Re: Why so optimistic? [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-05-2011 15:19
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I don't see your point.
You're comparing Honda's best numbers ever to these numbers, while other companies were having their worst numbers ever at the same time.

Remember, the auto "melt-down" started for some way before the big crash.
Restless
Profile for Restless
Re: Why so optimistic? [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-06-2011 02:35
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I compare sales for 2010 vs 2007, how is that different?
Compared to 2007, Nissan lost less, while others even had won market share. Honda results are not bad, but "not bad" <> "good"
Spearsoft
Profile for Spearsoft
Re: Why so optimistic? [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-06-2011 05:26
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Yes, but these are relative numbers. Compare these increase/decrease numbers to total volume and get the whole story.
Chris David
Profile for Chris David
Re: Why so optimistic? [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-06-2011 08:34
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I think the point is that Honda continues to lose market share. Yes, you can make arguments that their profit margins are better than the competition, but in the long term losing market share is never good. Hyundai and Kia are stealing Honda's (and Toyota's) core customers and companies like Ford are making compelling small cars for the first time in years.

Almost all of Honda's recent introductions, inc the CR-Z, Insight, Crosstour and all Acura cars, have had lower than expected sales. I'm hoping to new Civic knocks it out of the park, but I have my doubts.
Blue_Sky_surfer
Profile for Blue_Sky_surfer
Re: Why so optimistic? [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-06-2011 16:13
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Restless wrote:
I compare sales for 2010 vs 2007, how is that different?
Compared to 2007, Nissan lost less, while others even had won market share. Honda results are not bad, but "not bad" <> "good"

1) Any consideration for the effect of fleet sales (and I'm not talking about sales to gov'tal agencies and corporate customers, I'm talking about those rental fleet sales)? I think quite a bit of Nissan's sales in 2010 goes to rental fleet.

2) Furthermore, automakers of a full-line vehicles will have more difficulties to grow as fast as some smaller player. If you're selling, say, 200,000 previous year and add 40,000 additional sales, that's 20%. If you're selling 1 m vehicles a year, the same growth requires 200,000 additional sales. A much higher bar to reach, IMHO.

3) Much of recoveries of domestic automakers from 08/09 lie on the revival of truck (like those 1/2 ton trucks) sales and corporate (and gov't?) fleet sales. Both are minimal for Honda, I believe.
owequitit
Profile for owequitit
Re: Why so optimistic? [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-07-2011 01:23
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Restless wrote:
2010 by brands


Ok, Honda ends the year better than Toyota and Suzuki... is this a surprise?!

Brand Total Sales 2010 vs 2007
Honda 1,230,480 vs 1,551,542
Nissan 908,570 vs 1,068,238
Toyota 1,763,595 vs 2,620,825
Hyundai 538,228 vs 467,009
VW 256,830 vs 230,572

Nissan lost 10%, Honda 20%, Toyota 50%
True, while Hyundai&Kia do gain some %, the penetration is small so far.



As has already been mentioned, your numbers have significant flaws in them.

You failed to consider the change in total market volume from 2007-2010 and you neglected to consider fleet sales, and to break it down by segment and account for the segments that the various automakers don't compete it. For instance, Ford and GM have seen a strong resurgance in full size truck sales. Since this is a market that most manufacturers don't compete in AND they are #1 and #2 best selling vehicles in the US, it IS going to affect results.

As for fleet sales, I know for a fact that a fair % of Kia's are going to fleet sales, and I have seen many lower model Hyundais there as well. Toyota and Nissan seem to also have increased their sales to fleets as well, as the domestics have decreased them. The major issue with this is that it appears on paper to be a good increase in sales, but in the long term it is nothing but bad for the maker. Residuals and perceptions suffer, and ultimately, quality tends to follow the buyers demands which is to say...cheaper...since they are budget/profit driven.
Restless
Profile for Restless
Re: Why so optimistic? [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-07-2011 03:31
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owequitit wrote:
As has already been mentioned, your numbers have significant flaws in them.

You failed to consider the change in total market volume from 2007-2010 and you neglected to consider fleet sales, and to break it down by segment and account for the segments that the various automakers don't compete it. For instance, Ford and GM have seen a strong resurgance in full size truck sales. Since this is a market that most manufacturers don't compete in AND they are #1 and #2 best selling vehicles in the US, it IS going to affect results.

As for fleet sales, I know for a fact that a fair % of Kia's are going to fleet sales, and I have seen many lower model Hyundais there as well. Toyota and Nissan seem to also have increased their sales to fleets as well, as the domestics have decreased them. The major issue with this is that it appears on paper to be a good increase in sales, but in the long term it is nothing but bad for the maker. Residuals and perceptions suffer, and ultimately, quality tends to follow the buyers demands which is to say...cheaper...since they are budget/profit driven.

Well, as someone living in EU I'm not fully aware why "fleet sales" are considered bad.
For me it looks like free marketing, ie, someone who otherwise will never step in Hyundai/Kia, now will drive (or be driven) and may like it.
In Germany for example many taxi cars are MB E-class - and no harm for the brand.
I've never driven Sonata/Elantra, but had used these as taxi and they looked good enough from passengers seat. And looks like they are reliable enough also. While I do not consider buying Sonata/i30/Ceed in near future, my opinion for the brands went up, not down.
What I really notice is just that - Honda relative numbers are stagnating and the brand heavily relies on 3-4 models, with recent new models being not very , hm, exciting, not selling very well. Thats a vulnerable position.
Add on top the way EU is treated - with high prices, fewer and fewer models and options - no Stream, no FR-V, no Legend, the 8gen hatch is form-over-usefulness, Insight interior - looking as cheap as Logan... and comparing with 10y ago market share is falling.
owequitit
Profile for owequitit
Re: Why so optimistic? [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-07-2011 04:21
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Restless wrote:
owequitit wrote:
As has already been mentioned, your numbers have significant flaws in them.

You failed to consider the change in total market volume from 2007-2010 and you neglected to consider fleet sales, and to break it down by segment and account for the segments that the various automakers don't compete it. For instance, Ford and GM have seen a strong resurgance in full size truck sales. Since this is a market that most manufacturers don't compete in AND they are #1 and #2 best selling vehicles in the US, it IS going to affect results.

As for fleet sales, I know for a fact that a fair % of Kia's are going to fleet sales, and I have seen many lower model Hyundais there as well. Toyota and Nissan seem to also have increased their sales to fleets as well, as the domestics have decreased them. The major issue with this is that it appears on paper to be a good increase in sales, but in the long term it is nothing but bad for the maker. Residuals and perceptions suffer, and ultimately, quality tends to follow the buyers demands which is to say...cheaper...since they are budget/profit driven.

Well, as someone living in EU I'm not fully aware why "fleet sales" are considered bad.
For me it looks like free marketing, ie, someone who otherwise will never step in Hyundai/Kia, now will drive (or be driven) and may like it.
In Germany for example many taxi cars are MB E-class - and no harm for the brand.
I've never driven Sonata/Elantra, but had used these as taxi and they looked good enough from passengers seat. And looks like they are reliable enough also. While I do not consider buying Sonata/i30/Ceed in near future, my opinion for the brands went up, not down.
What I really notice is just that - Honda relative numbers are stagnating and the brand heavily relies on 3-4 models, with recent new models being not very , hm, exciting, not selling very well. Thats a vulnerable position.
Add on top the way EU is treated - with high prices, fewer and fewer models and options - no Stream, no FR-V, no Legend, the 8gen hatch is form-over-usefulness, Insight interior - looking as cheap as Logan... and comparing with 10y ago market share is falling.



Fleet sales are bad for several reasons, and it KILLED the domestics who provided fleet cars for years.

1) Fleets tend to buy the lowest versions of many cars. This drives the average market price down because lower trim cars are worth less than higher trim ones.

2) Fleets tend to replace the cars no more than every few years. Rental companies replace them every 6-12 months. So now, we have waves of used cars flooding the market regularly, and they are usually the crappy models. This drives the resale prices down because there is a large supply of used cars on the market at any given time.

3) Fleets tend to want cheaper cars, because it looks better on paper. ESPECIALLY cars that are supposed make money. It is easier to turn a profit on a cheap car than an expensive one because it takes less time to pay for it. Since the rental companies get rid of them every couple of months anyway, they don't care about things like long term durability. Worst case scenario, they only have to last a couple of years in places the government fleets.

4) Fleet sales are usually sold at a MUCH lower price than a retail sale. The margin on them is thin, but is made up in volume. Thus, the automaker has no incentive to improve it as they otherwise might.

5) Since everything related to fleet sales depresses the resale value of the car, the person who paid retail for it also suffers because their car is effectively worth less due to all of the fleet sales than it otherwise would be. For companies like Hyundai and Kia, this is going to be ESPECIALLY painful because they have a reputation for building cars that don't last, so resale sucks anyway. All the fleet sales do is either A) make the situation worse or B) reduce the gains in resale value that would have been seen with improving quality. Either way, when resales suck, it is harder for Hyundai/Kia to demand premium pricing without discounting, because the consumer doesn't want to lose money either.
HCM_Sniper
Profile for HCM_Sniper
Re: Why so optimistic? [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-08-2011 11:19
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Give it up. No arguing with these guys. Other manufacturers numbers are flawed except Honda's.

Truth is, Honda is losing market share. Plain and simple.

Honda doesn't have the bite they use to.
80honda
Profile for 80honda
Re: Why so optimistic? [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-08-2011 14:38
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HCM_Sniper wrote:
Give it up. No arguing with these guys. Other manufacturers numbers are flawed except Honda's.

Truth is, Honda is losing market share. Plain and simple.

Honda doesn't have the bite they use to.




LOL. You are such a great comedian.
80honda
Profile for 80honda
Re: Why so optimistic? [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-08-2011 14:40
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HCM_Sniper wrote:
Give it up. No arguing with these guys. Other manufacturers numbers are flawed except Honda's.

Truth is, Honda is losing market share. Plain and simple.

Honda doesn't have the bite they use to.




So, still bitter about being fired from Honda eh!
Restless
Profile for Restless
Re: Why so optimistic? [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-08-2011 16:53
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80honda wrote:

LOL. You are such a great comedian.



80honda wrote:



So, still bitter about being fired from Honda eh!



I'm still amazed that this site tolerates people like you.
You post nothing on the subject, just personal attacks.
Why moderators tolerate you?
Are you paying them?
Are you paid troll?
owequitit
Profile for owequitit
Re: Why so optimistic? [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-08-2011 17:15
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HCM_Sniper wrote:
Give it up. No arguing with these guys. Other manufacturers numbers are flawed except Honda's.

Truth is, Honda is losing market share. Plain and simple.

Honda doesn't have the bite they use to.



We deal with about 20 guys like you a month. It has a lot less to do with Honda's numbers and more with your inability to construct an actual arguement. Your failure to gain traction here is of your own doing, nobody else's.

Perhaps if you could construct a boat that actually had the capability to remain ON TOP of the water instead of underneath it, you might get better results. But instead, like every other Tom, Dick, and HCM_SUCKS screenname that comes in here, you are unable to construct anything of merit, so you resort to flaming Honda, and when that doesn't work, you flame individuals.

Finally, losing market share or not, his numbers are wholly incomplete and don't consider several IMPORTANT aspects of REALITY, which is something I wouldn't expect you to understand. It doesn't matter if you are looking at it from the perspective of Buick's numbers or Honda's. They are incomplete, and that is all there is too it.
Blue_Sky_surfer
Profile for Blue_Sky_surfer
Re: Why so optimistic? [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-08-2011 17:27
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Restless wrote:
[...]
Have you spent some time in looking at HMC's posting history?

Enjoy!
80honda
Profile for 80honda
Re: Why so optimistic? [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-09-2011 20:08
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Blue_Sky_surfer wrote:
Restless wrote:
[...]
Have you spent some time in looking at HMC's posting history?

Enjoy!




Bue_Sky_Surfer, it appears many poster here like HMC, restless, want TOV to be nothing but a bitch fest, and if anyone wishes to post positive feedback, they all ban together and beg for said poster to be banned.
Spearsoft
Profile for Spearsoft
Re: Why so optimistic? [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 01-09-2011 20:58
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HCM_Sniper wrote:
Give it up. No arguing with these guys. Other manufacturers numbers are flawed except Honda's.

Truth is, Honda is losing market share. Plain and simple.

Honda doesn't have the bite they use to.



You could look up the information yourself and see the numbers form 06/07, OR you can be a stupid douche about it.

Either way, life goes on.
 
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