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  TOV News > Honda considering pure EVs for US, Europe, and Japan > > Re: Such a small market

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NSXman
Profile for NSXman
Such a small market [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-20-2009 23:10
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There are quite a large group of idealists out there who look at an EV and think that plug-ins are some sort of salvation. These are the same people that also think that your local power company should drop coal and use only solar and wind, or think that we can put wires in the pavement and get power from asphalt heat.

Those of us who prefer to be grounded in reality and not idealism know that EVs are just plain stupid. You are spending nearly as much or even as much on an EV as you are on a gas powered car. That EV will get you 100 miles maybe, followed by a 3-8 hour appointment with the charging station. There are only a few people that this will work with.

Then, there are people who expect employers to tear up their parking lots and provide charging stations for their employees. Then there are people who want to use tax dollars to install charging stations (which means that we need affordable oil so that we can tax it to afford alternatives no one wants).

EVs are a pretty face to appeal to governments and public relations campaigns. Our automobiles cost more than they need to because we are throwing good R&D money after alternatives we do not need. I don't really even like hybrids and they make 100 times more sense than EVs.

Honda spent an eon developing a 6speed auto, doesn't have direct injection, and their cylinder deactivation falls short of its promise. Why not put R&D money where it belongs...making cars that we need for our lives (cars that run on GAS) better.

Even if we were all on EVs tomorrow, we'd still be in the same boat. Trying to find a way to make sure the power plants keep running. Remember when California was doing rolling blackouts? Imagine if 10% of California was taxing the grid charging their cars while they were at work.
Cory
Profile for Cory
Re: Such a small market [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-21-2009 09:12
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So, because it won't be immediately perfect a technology shouldn't be pursued?
80honda
Profile for 80honda
Re: Such a small market [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-21-2009 13:30
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NSXman wrote:
There are quite a large group of idealists out there who look at an EV and think that plug-ins are some sort of salvation. These are the same people that also think that your local power company should drop coal and use only solar and wind, or think that we can put wires in the pavement and get power from asphalt heat.

Those of us who prefer to be grounded in reality and not idealism know that EVs are just plain stupid. You are spending nearly as much or even as much on an EV as you are on a gas powered car. That EV will get you 100 miles maybe, followed by a 3-8 hour appointment with the charging station. There are only a few people that this will work with.

Then, there are people who expect employers to tear up their parking lots and provide charging stations for their employees. Then there are people who want to use tax dollars to install charging stations (which means that we need affordable oil so that we can tax it to afford alternatives no one wants).

EVs are a pretty face to appeal to governments and public relations campaigns. Our automobiles cost more than they need to because we are throwing good R&D money after alternatives we do not need. I don't really even like hybrids and they make 100 times more sense than EVs.

Honda spent an eon developing a 6speed auto, doesn't have direct injection, and their cylinder deactivation falls short of its promise. Why not put R&D money where it belongs...making cars that we need for our lives (cars that run on GAS) better.

Even if we were all on EVs tomorrow, we'd still be in the same boat. Trying to find a way to make sure the power plants keep running. Remember when California was doing rolling blackouts? Imagine if 10% of California was taxing the grid charging their cars while they were at work.



Agreed, for some reason, this year the announcements of EV from most every major automaker are all over the news.

Where are the customers?
civicwithacord
Profile for civicwithacord
Re: Such a small market [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-21-2009 16:04
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First up, the gasoline that powers _one_ combustion vehicle could put _six_ EVs on the road.
Next, you'd better hope that your assessment is correct, because all bets are that the Nissan Leaf hits showrooms Nov./Dec. 2010 and buries anyone who isn't in the game, Honda included.
As far as "EVs working for a few people", yeah, only about 90% of the population, many of whom do less than 100 miles and can charge overnight just fine.
Nah, it makes far more sense to just send our loved ones to volatile areas where oil is produced whenever supplies get tight and politics get dicey...
Might try googling "Honda EV-Plus, circa 1997.
NSXman
Profile for NSXman
Re: Such a small market [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-21-2009 19:27
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civicwithacord wrote:
First up, the gasoline that powers _one_ combustion vehicle could put _six_ EVs on the road.
Next, you'd better hope that your assessment is correct, because all bets are that the Nissan Leaf hits showrooms Nov./Dec. 2010 and buries anyone who isn't in the game, Honda included.
As far as "EVs working for a few people", yeah, only about 90% of the population, many of whom do less than 100 miles and can charge overnight just fine.
Nah, it makes far more sense to just send our loved ones to volatile areas where oil is produced whenever supplies get tight and politics get dicey...
Might try googling "Honda EV-Plus, circa 1997.



There is no way you could get 90% of the population on EV's, even if they do charge at night. More coal, natural gas, and nuclear would be needed. Where would all the heavy metals for the batteries come from? Where would they all be thrown away? What would emergency first responders do at an auto accident when they have that much electricity running through the cars (already a problem with hybrids)? Is every house going to get a 3-phase converter so that they don't have to wait 8 hours to charge? Will a battery/electric motor hold up for 200,000 miles? How will the battery/electric motor react to the heat of the south west, or the cold of the north east?

All bets are not on the Leaf, because mine isn't. The masses are not going to buy a vehicle that works only for commuting. What you fail to mention is that people don't just drive to work. They go home, take a shower, and then go back out and live their life. Which requires more than 100 miles and doesn't leave time for all of these charges you mention. And what about these people that a Leaf would work well for while they commute, but it leaves them no vehicle to go to grandma's house on the weekend? Are these people going to buy two cars now? What about people who go to lunch at work, adding 10-15 more miles?

Now to get political, what happens when cap and tax hits? Now, electricity prices skyrocket (Obama's own words, google it or youtube it if you don't believe me) and all the sudden these savings are cut in half. How about the gobs of tax dollars thrown at EV's? Will you ever get that money back? Nope.

And this whole argument that "just because it isn't perfect doesn't mean we shouldn't do it" is a red herring. No solution is perfect for sure. But I, and more than 90% of people are not going to jump on the EV bandwagon that is nothing more than a politically expedient move to appeal to idealists. A move that literally has no plan B and no one has thought it out past phase 1. So many questions to answer and yet the idealists just want to jump into the pool and hope their is water in there when they land. Not me.

No one said we have to send loved ones to volatile areas. Ever heard of domestic oil resources and oil shale? I am all for solutions. This is not a solution. This is Washington talk which measures success purely on "getting things done".


Senfen
Profile for Senfen
Re: Such a small market [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-22-2009 02:07
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I don't even know where to BEGIN.


Where would all the heavy metals for the batteries come from? Where would they all be thrown away?


Batteries don't even use many of the heavy metals (i.e. mercury cadmium) that they used to, so aren't even that much of an eco hazard. The government has even approved landfill disposal of lithium ion batteries, but that won't matter because they will be recycled anyway. Companies are going to ADAPT and start recycling.
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/03/tesla-electric-car-batteries-non-toxic-recycled.php


What would emergency first responders do at an auto accident when they have that much electricity running through the cars (already a problem with hybrids)?


Answer: they will ADAPT. Car mfgs. will ADAPT. The idea that we can't prevent people from getting electrocuted is the biggest non issue I've ever heard. How do you think first responders manage today with gallons and gallons of flammable gasoline on board every car?



Is every house going to get a 3-phase converter so that they don't have to wait 8 hours to charge?


Not necessarily. If battery sizes are standardized, we may one day be able to swap out batteries at a local station. I know some people dismiss this idea but it might make a lot of sense. More centralized charging locations could also interface with the power grid so that they save money on electricity when the rates are low and are able to stop charging their stock of batteries if the load on the power grid is too high.



Will a battery/electric motor hold up for 200,000 miles? How will the battery/electric motor react to the heat of the south west, or the cold of the north east?


Just because you don't know doesn't make this a stupid idea. That's why we have engineers. Maybe we should take a systematic look at any problems EVs might have and FIX it instead of wringing our hands over hypothetical reliability problems and suggesting they are insurmountable.


All bets are not on the Leaf, because mine isn't. The masses are not going to buy a vehicle that works only for commuting. What you fail to mention is that people don't just drive to work. They go home, take a shower, and then go back out and live their life. Which requires more than 100 miles and doesn't leave time for all of these charges you mention. And what about these people that a Leaf would work well for while they commute, but it leaves them no vehicle to go to grandma's house on the weekend? Are these people going to buy two cars now? What about people who go to lunch at work, adding 10-15 more miles?


Yeah, humanity could never develop automotive batteries good enough to satisfy consumers. Not now not ever. There's not going to be signifigant advances, no new battery chemistries invented from this point forward, an no application of nanotechnology either.

/sarcasm

Research is always slow and tough, but look at the progress we've made from lead acid, to nickel cadmium, to nickel metal hydride, now lithium ion. And those technologies were all invented without the mighty research power of the automotive industries, who are only just starting to seriously work on them.


How about the gobs of tax dollars thrown at EV's? Will you ever get that money back? Nope.


Define gobs. Compared to half the money we throw at the military industrial complex for projects we don't need or use I think we can afford some modest EV research. And you assert that we will be 'throwing away' money, but what if an actual advancement was made? Don't say it's impossible.


And this whole argument that "just because it isn't perfect doesn't mean we shouldn't do it" is a red herring. No solution is perfect for sure. But I, and more than 90% of people are not going to jump on the EV bandwagon that is nothing more than a politically expedient move to appeal to idealists. A move that literally has no plan B and no one has thought it out past phase 1. So many questions to answer and yet the idealists just want to jump into the pool and hope their is water in there when they land. Not me.


This changeover is not going to happen overnight. If, for some bizzare reason, electric vehicles don't work out it's not like we will have gone to far to turn back and ruined society. If they're complete garbage we will ADAPT and find something else. Batteries WILL get better, I promise you, and It's going to be well within our lifetimes. EVs are undeniably more eco friendly than gasoline cars so if the consumer wants to buy them and we can produce enough electricity (one again, we'll manage, we'll adapt) I don't see what the big hairy deal is.


civicwithacord
Profile for civicwithacord
Re: Such a small market [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-22-2009 09:35
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Just read moments ago that China will soon be drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. Since we denied their bid to buy Exxon, that is their solution. It's either that, or they go buy from Iran or Venezuela, or other anti-US countries. Result? Less supply, higher prices.
Some people just don't care that their middle east petro dollars fund terrorism, or that women are treated as second-class citizens (no right to vote, drive, or travel without permission of a male relative). Others see beyond the fuel gauge.
For the record, my CivicWithACord has a 40 mi. range. I've put on 18K miles on it, and it meets 90% of my driving needs. It was $10K to build, and the cost of driving at _current_ petro costs is .02 more than a combustion Civic. But it is a DC system, not an AC system, which is more efficient, due to regenerative braking and higher voltages. It's not for everyone, but I sleep well at night. It will be fun to see whose perspective is correct two years from now...
NSXman
Profile for NSXman
Re: Such a small market [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-22-2009 12:11
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civicwithacord wrote:
Just read moments ago that China will soon be drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. Since we denied their bid to buy Exxon, that is their solution. It's either that, or they go buy from Iran or Venezuela, or other anti-US countries. Result? Less supply, higher prices.
Some people just don't care that their middle east petro dollars fund terrorism, or that women are treated as second-class citizens (no right to vote, drive, or travel without permission of a male relative). Others see beyond the fuel gauge.
For the record, my CivicWithACord has a 40 mi. range. I've put on 18K miles on it, and it meets 90% of my driving needs. It was $10K to build, and the cost of driving at _current_ petro costs is .02 more than a combustion Civic. But it is a DC system, not an AC system, which is more efficient, due to regenerative braking and higher voltages. It's not for everyone, but I sleep well at night. It will be fun to see whose perspective is correct two years from now...



Perhaps you'll notice that I never said we shouldn't explore solutions. I just want solutions the market demands and are not built just so Honda can get by CARB regulations.

I want Honda back in the game of making gas powered cars more efficient (especially the non hybrid ones). In my opinion, they have pushed that to the side (which will have a more immediate impact on Western nations fuel needs).

And for the other comment, there are more domestic resources than the Gulf of Mexico that China is drilling. If we are going to push for alternatives, we shouldn't starve our selves of our resources in the immediate future. After all, the way we have set alternatives up mean they are only viable with the taxed profits of oil. Deny that fact all you want. And don't give me that blubber about the war machine. Get real. You can say you hate that all you want, but when an enemy comes knocking at your door, 10:1 odds you are going to appreciate that "machine". We spend more on welfare and ear marks than anything else anyway.

Nick GravesX
Profile for Nick GravesX
Re: Such a small market [View News Item]    (Score: 1, Normal) 10-23-2009 13:45
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80honda wrote:
NSXman wrote:
There are quite a large group of idealists out there who look at an EV and think that plug-ins are some sort of salvation. These are the same people that also think that your local power company should drop coal and use only solar and wind, or think that we can put wires in the pavement and get power from asphalt heat.

Those of us who prefer to be grounded in reality and not idealism know that EVs are just plain stupid. You are spending nearly as much or even as much on an EV as you are on a gas powered car. That EV will get you 100 miles maybe, followed by a 3-8 hour appointment with the charging station. There are only a few people that this will work with.

Then, there are people who expect employers to tear up their parking lots and provide charging stations for their employees. Then there are people who want to use tax dollars to install charging stations (which means that we need affordable oil so that we can tax it to afford alternatives no one wants).

EVs are a pretty face to appeal to governments and public relations campaigns. Our automobiles cost more than they need to because we are throwing good R&D money after alternatives we do not need. I don't really even like hybrids and they make 100 times more sense than EVs.

Honda spent an eon developing a 6speed auto, doesn't have direct injection, and their cylinder deactivation falls short of its promise. Why not put R&D money where it belongs...making cars that we need for our lives (cars that run on GAS) better.

Even if we were all on EVs tomorrow, we'd still be in the same boat. Trying to find a way to make sure the power plants keep running. Remember when California was doing rolling blackouts? Imagine if 10% of California was taxing the grid charging their cars while they were at work.



Agreed, for some reason, this year the announcements of EV from most every major automaker are all over the news.

Where are the customers?



If you remember, there was a moneygeddion where most of the makers went crying to their gov'ts for a bail-out.

Usually, this was granted on the promise of 'green technology' being developed by the makers, since most politiciunts discredited around the world see the green religion and the stories of annihilation as their saviours.

So it's not about engineering, or science or reason.

Doesn't take long to drop a blow-moulded body onto a milk truck chassis & call it the X-EV or whatever...
 
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