Are Drivers Returning to Manual Transmissions?
According to a new study, the short answer is yes. But the long answer is still no.

[...] The piece cites an uptick in stick-shift "take rates," the industry term for the percentage of new-car buyers who select a given vehicle option during purchase. It implies that buyers are returning to manual gearboxes out of choice, a conscious movement back to an earlier, more primitive technology. Autoblog even went so far as to say that car buyers are "falling back in love" with manual transmissions.

It's a nice thought, and I wish it were true. But it doesn't follow what's actually happening. More bluntly: If this is anything other than a statistical blip, I'll eat my hat.

Before we go any further, let's take a look at the numbers cited. USA Today says that:

... in the first quarter of this year, manuals were in 6.5% of new vehicles sold, and that's getting close to double each of the past five years. It's also highest since 7.2% in 2006, according to Edmunds.com. That high "take rate," as the industry calls it, is even more impressive because just 19% of the 2,360 different models on sale offer manuals, Edmunds.com reports. Five years ago, 29% of the 2,391 available styles did — yet only 2.9% were sold with stick shifts that year, the lowest "take rate" in a decade.

The story also lists historic manual take rates, though it doesn't specify the market in question. (I'm assuming it's America.)

Edmunds.com calculated the "take rate" of manuals for Drive On. The 2012 calculation is for the first quarter of the year. The others are full-year: 2012 - 6.5%, 2011 - 3.8%, 2010 - 3.9%, 2009 - 4.4%, 2008 - 3.7%, 2007 - 2.9%, 2006 - 7.2%, 2005 - 6.7%, 2004 - 5.5%, 2004 - 5.5%, 2003 - 8.2%, 2002 - 8.5%.

So we have one year's [actually one quarter's] worth of numbers that indicate a small percentage of people have moved back toward manual transmissions. We even have a bit of context: The story compares shrinking manuals on offer (fewer cars are available with manuals now than a few years ago) and tries to convince you, via a few bullet-pointed arguments -- topics such as price, performance, driver habit -- that this is something people are doing consciously.

Perhaps. But I doubt it. To paraphrase an old saw, there are lies, damn lies and journalist interpretations of sales figures for mass-produced automobiles. It would be stupid to pretend the 2012 number wasn't real, but it's also foolish to read too much into it. Manual-transmission sales have been falling for years, and a slight rise in that fall shouldn't be news. [...]