JP
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Any thoughts?
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jero
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Goal is 40,000/year. Honda hasn't come close to hitting a sales goal in years, so I'd say if they hit 80% of that they will be naked in the streets.
2500/mo is 30k/year... which would be 75% of goal. Check sales after the new year (~6 months out) and see where it settles at.
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98EX4cyl
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jero wrote:
Goal is 40,000/year. Honda hasn't come close to hitting a sales goal in years, so I'd say if they hit 80% of that they will be naked in the streets.
2500/mo is 30k/year... which would be 75% of goal. Check sales after the new year (~6 months out) and see where it settles at.
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IMO even 65% of goal in first year will be fine. With 3 engines/models it will take a while to develop dealer inventory. More importantly, the low price point will get more customers in see the rest of the lineup and see how easily they can get more for a little extra$$. Acura will have lots of ILX/TSX cross shopping and the ILX being a weaker package it may boost TSX sales at its own expense??
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Hondarulez
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jero wrote:
Goal is 40,000/year. Honda hasn't come close to hitting a sales goal in years, so I'd say if they hit 80% of that they will be naked in the streets.
2500/mo is 30k/year... which would be 75% of goal. Check sales after the new year (~6 months out) and see where it settles at.
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+1
It's too bad couldn't roll out the new cars with the new ED powertrains though...and I wonder how that would affect sales and image of the car (150hp doesn't sound good for a so called luxury brand)
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DCR
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Well, you've got the top, middle and bottom to deal with.
The top percentage will be the 150hp model, the 2.4 will sell minimal amounts if you ever see one, and the hybrid model with be a very expensive coat hanger for Acura sales folks.
So, per month, that 5000 would be almost entirely 150hp models out the door? If the TSX never existed, maybe this could happen.
That is optimistic right now though.
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benbess
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I think they'll meet their sales goal. I think Acura dealers will star blowing them out the door. It's an good product at a good price. It's the lowest priced "luxury car" you an buy iirc. Once Honda starts to add incentives on top of that, they might well sell them like popcorn. Affordable luxury. Their timing might be just right...
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DrWhiner
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Not even the RDX is hitting 5k.
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NSXman
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To me the biggest challenge with a sub $30k car in a luxury line is value. Luxury cars that are $35k - $45k and higher are generally the same price as other luxury cars...or high end cars from standard lines.
When you have a $25k luxury car (like the ILX) you are trading a boat load of practicality for a luxury badge. You could get yourself into an Accord EX with equally impressive mileage, decent acceleration and handling, gobs more interior space, good resale, etc. With the ILX you are getting perhaps a better interior quality and a better warranty and an Acura badge.
I think luxury cars that try to play in this range always suffer from the "I could get more car for this money" argument. When people spend this type of money on a car, it is typically a big family decision as to how much they can afford and can they make payments for 5 years. $40k+ buyers tend to have enough extra money as to be able to buy into a little less bang per dollar. As such I don't think the ILX could reach and certainly not sustain 5k sales a month.
Unless interior materials is all you care about, I think buying an ILX for $25k is semi-foolish when you consider the caliber of car you can get for $25k from the US and Japan.
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Waldo
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I think Acura will market the ILX to the hilt. They need to get a lot of cars out there wearing the Acura badge. And they need to get a lot of people into Acura showrooms who have never been in one. Watch for targeted incentives aimed a young upward striving metro professionals. These people really don't give a crap about leading edge performance, but they do want a car that looks nice, feels nice, and has a prestige brand. Ford, Chevy, and Honda don't cut it.
If Costco sold cars, the ILX would be perfect. Same demographic.
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Hondarulez
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NSXman wrote:
To me the biggest challenge with a sub $30k car in a luxury line is value. Luxury cars that are $35k - $45k and higher are generally the same price as other luxury cars...or high end cars from standard lines.
When you have a $25k luxury car (like the ILX) you are trading a boat load of practicality for a luxury badge. You could get yourself into an Accord EX with equally impressive mileage, decent acceleration and handling, gobs more interior space, good resale, etc. With the ILX you are getting perhaps a better interior quality and a better warranty and an Acura badge.
I think luxury cars that try to play in this range always suffer from the "I could get more car for this money" argument. When people spend this type of money on a car, it is typically a big family decision as to how much they can afford and can they make payments for 5 years. $40k+ buyers tend to have enough extra money as to be able to buy into a little less bang per dollar. As such I don't think the ILX could reach and certainly not sustain 5k sales a month.
Unless interior materials is all you care about, I think buying an ILX for $25k is semi-foolish when you consider the caliber of car you can get for $25k from the US and Japan.
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I think these are valid points.
In the $25k-$30k range, most of those are high end compact cars (Focus Titanium, Civic EX-L, etc) or mid-size sedans (Accord EX, EX-L, Camry SE, LE, Sonata, etc). Most of these cars sell at a rate of about 20000-30000 a month, some even higher. I'm pretty sure Acura/Honda knows this. This is why they are targeting roughly 3000 a month for the ILX. That's about 10-15% of the above cars. So yes, most people would still go for the Accord, Sonata, Focus Titanium because they feel that they have more features for the price. However, a small amount of people might feel that they want something a bit different and don't mind paying a small premium to get it.
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integrator
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First, let me say the value proposition is over stated. Although 'offered', you will likely never see a cloth interior base ILX - Acura will want to sell the Premium and Tech which, out the door is a minimum 30k vehicle when you add the destination charge. The base (bcuz of its price) is for advertising purposes. The hybrid, is for the CAFE avg'ing. The 2.4L is merely to get favorable press. What shows on dealer lots will be 2 cars: 2.0 Premium, 2.0 Tech Pkg. 1 in 10 available will be from these 3 trims. Good luck hunting em out.
At that $30k price, the ILX is going to be right in TSX territory. My guess is shoppers will bias toward the TSX unless fuel economy is a greater requirement. Either way, that overlap means Acura (by keeping the TSX 2.4) has created its own spoiler situation. I wonder if they'll make 40k ILX units/yr - this TSX model has avg'd about 30k(+/-2) unit/yr.
I could foresee the ILX doing 25-30k units/yr and TSX dropping to 15k. But Acura would still have to add 50% more customers in this range to make even that speculative estimate a reality. 60k unit/yr is not in the realm of reality.
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duncan
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NSXman wrote:
To me the biggest challenge with a sub $30k car in a luxury line is value. Luxury cars that are $35k - $45k and higher are generally the same price as other luxury cars...or high end cars from standard lines.
When you have a $25k luxury car (like the ILX) you are trading a boat load of practicality for a luxury badge. You could get yourself into an Accord EX with equally impressive mileage, decent acceleration and handling, gobs more interior space, good resale, etc. With the ILX you are getting perhaps a better interior quality and a better warranty and an Acura badge.
I think luxury cars that try to play in this range always suffer from the "I could get more car for this money" argument. When people spend this type of money on a car, it is typically a big family decision as to how much they can afford and can they make payments for 5 years. $40k+ buyers tend to have enough extra money as to be able to buy into a little less bang per dollar. As such I don't think the ILX could reach and certainly not sustain 5k sales a month.
Unless interior materials is all you care about, I think buying an ILX for $25k is semi-foolish when you consider the caliber of car you can get for $25k from the US and Japan.
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Very good argument here. If the underlying brand has enough cache then I can see people willing to trade badge for practicality. For instance if BMW were to introduce a 1 Series sedan in NA, I'm sure there will be more than enough less-than-well-off brandwhores who would consider such a car to be a steal relative to a 3 Series. Is Acura in the same boat? Doubtful.
Just look at the EL/CSX--when the EL carried a price premium of only a few hundred dollars over the Civic, it sold very well. But when the CSX came out w/ a 4-figure premium, sales went down. That said, the ILX will be a wholly differentiated car from the Civic, unlike the rebadged CSX and that's big positive. But history does suggest the "I could get more car for this money" argument is a valid one regardless.
As someone else posted, if Acura can achieve 75% of target in the first year they should be very happy. 5,000/th is simply not realistic.
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Hondarulez
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integrator wrote:
First, let me say the value proposition is over stated. Although 'offered', you will likely never see a cloth interior base ILX - Acura will want to sell the Premium and Tech which, out the door is a minimum 30k vehicle when you add the destination charge. The base (bcuz of its price) is for advertising purposes. The hybrid, is for the CAFE avg'ing. The 2.4L is merely to get favorable press. What shows on dealer lots will be 2 cars: 2.0 Premium, 2.0 Tech Pkg. 1 in 10 available will be from these 3 trims. Good luck hunting em out.
At that $30k price, the ILX is going to be right in TSX territory. My guess is shoppers will bias toward the TSX unless fuel economy is a greater requirement. Either way, that overlap means Acura (by keeping the TSX 2.4) has created its own spoiler situation. I wonder if they'll make 40k ILX units/yr - this TSX model has avg'd about 30k(+/-2) unit/yr.
I could foresee the ILX doing 25-30k units/yr and TSX dropping to 15k. But Acura would still have to add 50% more customers in this range to make even that speculative estimate a reality. 60k unit/yr is not in the realm of reality.
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This is why I think Acura will push the TSX higher up in terms of price and features. Better buy the TSX now if you like it!
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Ganplosive
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I thought it was 40,000 units/year, divided by 12 is 3334 sales a month.
at ~250 dealerships around the United States, that's about 14 ILX sales per dealership per month.
If we use 5k divided ~250 dealers it's 20 sales a month, per dealership.
I think it's do-able, but Acura will have an uphill battle to fight. They're already dropping the money on advertisements (anyone else also feel like they see more Acura ad's than say... 5 years ago?). Finally for once they're being the aggressors.
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Hondarulez
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Ganplosive wrote:
I thought it was 40,000 units/year, divided by 12 is 3334 sales a month.
at ~250 dealerships around the United States, that's about 14 ILX sales per dealership per month.
If we use 5k divided ~250 dealers it's 20 sales a month, per dealership.
I think it's do-able, but Acura will have an uphill battle to fight. They're already dropping the money on advertisements (anyone else also feel like they see more Acura ad's than say... 5 years ago?). Finally for once they're being the aggressors.
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40k is the target. But JP believes the ILX should be able to do even better than that.
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Colin
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Ganplosive wrote:
I thought it was 40,000 units/year, divided by 12 is 3334 sales a month.
at ~250 dealerships around the United States, that's about 14 ILX sales per dealership per month.
If we use 5k divided ~250 dealers it's 20 sales a month, per dealership.
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On this: We don't expect 40K a year this year because the year will already be 5 months old when the car arrives. No doubt folks here will be saying it's "a fail" in December when the YTD numbers aren't 40K.
Also, I think that 12 cars a month divided into 6 trim levels (four if you take out the Hybrid) doesn't sound like a lot of inventory. Especially when you consider the various color combinations.
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DCR
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Colin wrote:
On this: We don't expect 40K a year this year because the year will already be 5 months old when the car arrives. No doubt folks here will be saying it's "a fail" in December when the YTD numbers aren't 40K.
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I hope you were trying to be funny.
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jero
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Give them 6 months to get the ramp up, marketing and first buyers done.
2013 Jan-Jan will be the no excuses mark to see where the 40K goal stands IMO.
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Ganplosive
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ooohh I see. 5k a month is pretty optimistic, but I think that's fairly possible as well. Either way I got my fingers crossed for Acura, reclaiming some lost sales would be #1 priority plus give them the cachet to offer more offerings in the future
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